Ducks MVP? A matter of numbers

Kevin Cline Photography

Kevin Cline Photography

I was thinking this week that I would come up with my own player efficiency rating for our basketball team.  I have not done any research in regards to anyone else’s equations, so if mine is similar to something you have seen before, know that I have not copied anyone.  This is the equation I have decided on that best shows which player is truly the most valuable player for the Ducks, not just the player that scores the most points.  In order to appear on my list, the player must have played in at least 15 games this season.  This is strictly a statistical ranking, it has nothing to do with leadership or playing good in clutch games.

I will be using the following equation.  Points+Rebounds+Assists+Steals+Blocks equals the players offensive output rating.  Then I will take the offensive output rating – turnovers which equals the game output rating.  Finally, I will take the players game output rating and multiply it by their free throw percentage, and that will equal the players total efficiency rating.  For example, if a players offensive output rating is 10 and they commit 1.5 turnovers per game and they shoot 85.1% from the free throw line, the equation will look like this; 10 – 1.5 = 8.5 x .851 = 7.234.  This particular player’s efficiency rating would then be 7.234.  I have added the free throw percentage in to the equation because I feel it is very important, as most free throws are taken towards the end of the game and can determine the final score.

So, without further ado, here are my player efficiency ratings.

1. Arsalan Kazemi: 23.4 – 1.4 = 22 x .718 = 15.796

Arsalan Kazemi tops my list as the no. 1 most efficient player on the team.  Kazemi gets it done in all phases, and has the highest offensive output rating.  He also shoots 71.8% from the free throw line, which helps his total score.  When the Ducks need solid play, Kazemi is the one player they can always rely on to get it done.  It’s too bad that Oregon only has him for one season.

2. E.J. Singler: 20.7 – 2.5 = 18.2 x .824 = 14.996

Singler is less than a point behind Kazemi.  Anyone who has watched Oregon for the last four years knows how valuable he is to the team.  Singler is another player that Oregon can rely on in sticky situations to get the job done.  He has lower offensive and game output ratings than Kazemi, but his great free throw shooting helped him stay close in his total efficiency rating.

3. Damyean Dotson: 16.8 – 1.3 = 15.5 x .755 = 11.702

Freshman Damyean Dotson comes in 3rd on my list.  Dotson has been significant for Oregon this season in their run to win the Pac-12.  He has a good game output rating and shoots fairly well from the charity stripe.  Hopefully he is not too injured after his fall against Oregon State.  The Ducks can’t afford to replace one injured freshman for another if they want to have a good post season.

4. Carlos Emory: 17.6 – 2.1 = 15.5 x .744 = 11.532

2012 Walt’s Photography

Emory barely fell behind Dotson in his efficiency rating.  He has a higher offensive output rating, but commits more turnovers, which makes it a tie for game output rating.  He also has a slightly lower free throw percentage than Dotson, and that puts him in 4th.

5. Dominic Artis: 18 – 2.6 = 15.4 x .689 = 10.610

Artis has been key to Oregon’s run this year, because he controls the floor and the flow of the game.  However, going strictly off of statistics he ranks 5th on the efficiency chart.  He has a better offensive output rating than Dotson and Emory, but commits more turnovers.  He also doesn’t help himself with his 68.9% free throw shooting.  He returned to play for 12 minutes against Oregon State, and the Ducks will need him more than ever with Dotson’s health being up in the air.

6. Tony Woods: 14.9 – 1.7 = 13.2 x .667 = 8.804

Numbers don’t account for the presence that Woods has down low, and the disruption he causes around the basket.  The numbers have him at no. 6 on my list, though, because as a post player he doesn’t contribute much in the assist or steal category.

7. Jonathan Loyd: 9.8 – 1.8 = 8 x .581 = 4.648

Loyd represents a significant drop off after Woods.  He has recently become a more consistent scorer for the Ducks, but he has one of the lowest free throw percentages on the team, at 58.1%.  That being said, he has done a good job going from the bench and stepping into a starting role after Artis was injured.

8. Ben Carter: 6.1 – 0.7 = 5.4 x .833 = 4.498

While Carter doesn’t have a very high offensive output rating, he saves his efficiency rating by shooting 83.3% from the free throw line.  Carter hasn’t been a major factor for Oregon this year but he looks to have a good upside as he continues in his career.

9. Waverly Austin: 8.1 – 1.0 = 7.1 x .556 = 3.947

If I were going on just how I feel who is more important to the team, I would have Austin above Carter.  Austin has a higher offensive and game output than Carter but he kills his rating with his percentage from the free throw line.

10. Willie Moore: 4.0 – 1.0 = 3.0 x .696 =2.088

Moore rounds out the list in 10th place.  He doesn’t get much playing time but has had to step in and do what he can after the injury to Artis.  Moore has good size but will need to contribute more in the statistical categories to move up on the list. He’ll get that as he gains experience in the college game.

I would love to hear back from the readers on what you think about my rankings.  If I was going purely on the eye test, I would move some players up or down on this list in order of who I think is most valuable.  I do, however, feel that Kazemi is the most valuable player on our team even though he is the 6th leading scorer.  I might move Emory up above Dotson, as his athleticism is through the roof and he provides a great spark when Oregon needs it most.  So, proceed with the intelligent comments, and let me know any changes you would make.

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Sam Arney

Sam Arney

Sam was born and raised in Cottage Grove, Oregon and he has been a die hard Duck fan his entire life. Sam studied at the University of Oregon before moving to San Diego for 5 years. After moving back to Oregon, Sam decided to follow his passion for writing and started writing for various sports sites. To him, nothing is better than being in Autzen Stadium with 59,000 fans screaming their heads off!

  • Jon

    While i don’t really like your PER equation I think it still rates the players pretty accurately. without really good statistics (and a lot of time) it is difficult to develope a sophisticated PER (like John Hollinger’s PER) I would like to see usage play into the equation somehow. Interesting article! Thanks, Sam!

    • Sam Arney

      Yeah, Hollinger’s is very in depth. I like his, it also takes into account playing time and some other statistics that I have not added. Thanks for the feedback!