Signing Day Recruits And An Eye On 2014

Mark Helfrich

Yesterday, a long, perplexing and generally crazy cycle came to an end. 19 commits faxed in their letters of intent.  Here’s a look at the class using the tier system I created a couple ago:

Tier-E: 5-star rating by at least one service

Tier-1: 4-star rating by at least two services

Tier-2: 4-star rating by one service

Tier-3: 3-star rating by at least two services

 

Tier E: Thomas Tyner RB

Tier 1: Darren Carrington WR

Tier 1: Devon Allen WR

Tier 1: Evan Voeller OL

Tier 1: Cameron Hunt OL

Tier 1: Torrodney Prevot DE

Tier 1: Tyrell Robinson LB

Tier 1: Danny Mattingly LB

Tier 1: Tyree Robinson DB

Tier 2: Johnny Mundt TE

Tier 2: Chris Seisay DB

Tier 3: Juwaan Williams DB

Tier 3: Joe Walker LB

Tier 3: Damion Hobbs QB

Tier 3: Kani Benoit RB

Tier 3: Doug Brenner OL

Tier 3: Elijah George OL

Tier 3: Jake Pisarcik OL

Tier 3: Matt Wogan K

 

The final tier breakdown looks like this:

Tier E: 1

Tier 1: 8

Tier 2: 2

Tier 3: 8

The Ducks finished 16th on 247Sports, 17th on Scout and 21st on Rivals.  All things considered, this was a great finish for Helfrich and his staff.  Not all was good, however, as Oregon lost Dontre Wilson to Ohio State on Monday.  Despite how some are twisting that news, it definitely hurt, and leaves the Ducks with a need at the “TZR” position going forward.  That said, the Ducks have shown an ability to recruit elite playmakers and DeAnthony Thomas continuing to tear up defenses in 2013 won’t hurt their cause.

While they did lose Wilson a couple days ago, Oregon was able to secure commitments from Tier-1 tackle Cameron Hunt and Tier-1 defensive end Torrodney Prevot, as well as the Robinson twins (who visited UW over the weekend).  Hunt’s commitment was expected, but Prevot’s announcement came as a big surprise.  Not only did he de-commit from USC, he chose the Ducks over hometown favorite Texas A&M.  As for the Robinsons, they were said to be thinking very seriously about flipping to Washington, which luckily didn’t happen.  As a whole, signing day was a huge success for the Oregon program.

Given the context of the last three weeks, Oregon fans should be ecstatic with how the class rounded out.  Not only did the coaches avoid disaster, they put together a very good class.  Two weeks ago, not many thought things would turn out this well.

Torrodney Prevot

Now that the 2013 recruiting season is behind us (for the most part), it’s time to look ahead to 2014.

What kind of class should Oregon fans expect, both in terms of quantity and quality?  Well, if the last few weeks are any indication, they should expect a lot.

First, let’s take a look at the numbers.  As of today, the Ducks have 13 scholarship seniors going into 2013 with 5 additional “open” spots that weren’t filled up yesterday.  Assuming those 5 spots remain open (keep an eye on Nic Purcell) there will be 18 open spots for the 2014 class entering the spring.  When you look at expected attrition, including early entries into the 2014 NFL draft (like Lyerla, DAT, Ifo or Mariota) and transfers, it looks like Oregon will have between 22 and 25 scholarships available.

It’s possible that sanctions could cut into this scholarship number, but that’s impossible to predict so let’s set that aside for now.  Let’s also assume that two players decide to leave early for the NFL draft. That leaves 20 open spots.  Now add in five more transfers, a conservative number based on recent history, and that means Oregon would be able to take a full, 25-player class in 2014.

We’ve certainly made some assumptions here, but in order to do a prediction like this a year beforehand, it’s necessary to do so.  Here’s how I see the 25 spots getting filled based on expected roster depth and class balance:

 

2 QB

2 RB

1 TZR

2 WR

1 TE

4 OL

5 DL

4 LB

4 DB

= 25 commits

 

Buddha Baker – 2014 Recruit To Watch For

Even if Oregon can only take 20 (which I see as the minimum based on possible sanctions), they’ll still be in great shape.  Oregon is set up to be an incredibly deep, talented team, even more so than they already are.

Obviously, quantity means nothing without quality so you know that Helfrich and Co. want to continue adding elite talent.  If the Ducks can have a successful season on the field, recruits will know that the Oregon program is and always has been more than just one man.  Combined with what appears to be a more aggressive recruiting approach under Helfrich (a topic I’ll cover next week), Oregon could be in line to have one of its best recruiting classes ever.

The future is bright in Eugene.  Another great class rounds out an already talented roster, and the 2014 class looks like it could be truly special.  By this time next year, the national audience might finally realize that the Oregon program is here to stay.

 

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Chris Charbonnier

Chris Charbonnier

Chris was born in Montevideo, Uruguay, but made his way to Oregon by the age of five, when he attended his first game at Autzen Stadium. A huge sports fan at a young age, Chris grew up playing football, basketball and golf. Although realizing he isn’t likely to play in the NFL or NBA, Chris still holds on to hopes of being a professional golfer should his unfortunate putting woes take a turn for the better. A bit of a platypus, he attended both Oregon State and Oregon during his collegiate days where he earned a business degree in Finance and Business Administration. Chris works for Daimler Trucks North America in Portland, and plans to get his MBA from the University of Oregon.Chris has been an active member in the recruiting community since 2005. He studies the intricacies of recruiting and is particularly intrigued by talent evaluation techniques. He is currently working on developing his own scouting reports for every scholarship player on the UO roster. Chris lives with his wife, Katrina, and his two-year-old son Lucas (a future dual-threat QB).

  • Stephen Wallner

    Chris,
    I like your recruit ranking system more every time I see it. You should start your own recruiting website in which you do no actual scouting of your own and just compile everyone elses rankings! It is nice to see the list of tier 1s make up more and more of each class as we look at the current roster from oldest to youngest; let’s hope that continues. Thanks for all the hard work Fish Duck staff!

    • fishduck

      Stephen…to encourage a writer to leave us is not very nice. We love the work that Chris does, and will publish and promote all of his articles so that he can analyze instead of running a website.

      Believe me…I know about that. I was just a schmuck trying to learn and offer analysis and now a site is a much bigger task than I envisioned…

      • Stephen Wallner

        FishDuck! You are right sir, I wouldn’t want to take away from the great product on this site. Thanks again for all your great work guys. I have been reading for 3 years or so and it only continues to get better.

    • Chris Charbonnier

      Thanks for the feedback. I love the rating system too. Watch out for the PAC12 Talent Rankings this summer (once rosters are released). It’s only getting more accurate and informative every year.

  • Dr. Rick

    Nice analysis and good job!

    These are great players and will help the Ducks be even more Duckish, if there is such a word. Spread the field and get the ball to players in space. Smart offense and smart defense.
    I am looking forward to seeing Coach Helfrich get his shot. There is a reason he has been OC working with “Chippah.”
    “Oh, how we love to learn about our beloved Ducks.”

    Fast, Hard, Finish.

    • Chris Charbonnier

      Thanks Dr. Rick!

  • BiospazDuck

    I agree with most of the analysis, though I would have liked to see another TZR style RB I this class and a big DT to redshirt for the future. Without them we’ll have more need next year when I see us potentially losing a lot of our strong juniors to the draft in addition to like 3 or so transfers. However I don’t see the duck changing the formula too much and drafting a full class. They like to save a couple scholarships usually for exceptional walkons. In this, I don’t see 3 RB’s (including the TZR), cause even if the ducks DAT to the pros, theyll still have 3 scholarship backs, I dontaee th cluttering the backfield with 6 backs, at most I see them have 5 (which means they pick up 2 w/o DAT and 1 TZR if he stays). Also, with 5 OL signed this year, I don’t see them draft too many next year unless they lose both Jake & hroniss to the draft. Most likely they lose one of the two, my guess grasu, so they draft a big center to back up brenner and a decent OT to provide depth and a LS cause we’ll need a good one with Howell graduating to continue our awesome ST packages. The other area I disagree is with the amout of DL drafted next year. Though I do see that as a position of need next year without the big NT in this year’s class, my guess is they don’t overdraft. Theyll have a lot of depth still from last years huge class and my guess is they sign a big NT from a JC and then get another solid DT and a DE. Unless they are hit with huge attrition at this position, they should still be pretty set from last years class. At LB I think 4 is a stretch. Prevot is likely to be a DE like Deon was a DE – aka he’ll really be a hybrid OLB. Thus, they got 4 LB’s this year and will likely only need 2 MLB’s unless they are hit with unexpected attrition. Finally, I think it is highly unlikely they don’t recruit a kicker next year since Dylan only has 2 years of eligibility (and Dylan was the #1 JC kicker as I recall last year so stating he’s a rank 5 recruit just because last year they really didn’t rank JC prospects at most sites seems harsh). Overall good article and a thought provoaking read. Really looking forward to the duck

    • BiospazDuck

      …s next year! Fast, strong, finish & win the day! Go Ducks!

    • BiospazDuck

      Wow my grammar totally sucked in my reply. I’m typing on a phone on a bus, so please forgive me, and since I didn’t say it, the total size of the class I’m expecting is 20 or 21 next year depending upon attrition.