Kevin Cline
Last week, we looked at the significance of talent and recruiting rankings. This week, we begin counting down to the most talented roster in the Pac-12. Below is an explanation of the tier-system used to compile the data:
- Tier-E: 5-star rating by at least one service
- Tier-1: 4-star rating by at least two services
- Tier-2: 4-star rating by one service
- Tier-3: 3-star rating by at least two services
- Tier-4: 3-star rating by one service
- Tier-5: No 3-star rating by any service
Let’s get started:
#12: Colorado Buffaloes
What I Said Last Summer
“The Buffs are in the exact same position as the Cougars and Beavers: a lack of talent leads to on-field struggles. These struggles, combined with an undesirable location leads to sub-par recruiting classes and inevitably, more losses. It’s a vicious cycle.”
“So, basically, the only two teams in the conference that are less-talented than the Buffaloes will still be favored to finish higher in the standings at the end of 2012. That’s not good.”
Colorado has a lot of work to do in catching Oregon
“The class of 2014 will go a long way towards shaping the future success of this team, but that’s still a couple of years away, and even if they strike gold, it’ll be two years before those players make a contribution big enough to matter. That puts us in 2016.”
2012 Season Recap
It’s safe to say that 2012 was a disaster for the Buffs. They went 1-11 with losses to Sacramento State and in-state rival CSU. Their lone win came against Washington State, and that was only by a point. On the season, they were outscored 552 – 214, which is shockingly bad. There weren’t a lot of moral victories either; Colorado lost eight different games by at least 25 points. Their lack of talent and depth was painfully evident all year.
Talent Summary
Colorado has less E-2 talent and more tier-4 and 5 players on their roster than any other team in the conference. That means the Buffs lack talent AND depth, a combination that leads to seasons like the one they just had. Expect a small class in 2014 that won’t turn many heads.
What the Future Holds
Let’s start with the good: things can’t possibly get much worse. Wins over CSU and Central Arkansas would be a great way to start the 2013 season. Unfortunately, the Buffaloes still play in the Pac-12. A team that gets outscored 552 – 214 (!) doesn’t just come back the next year and tear it up. After their first two aforementioned match-ups, only games against Fresno State and Utah appear winnable. Without adding a considerable amount of talent, Colorado’s ceiling isn’t likely to rise anytime in the foreseeable future. Everything I wrote last summer still holds true, meaning that the 2014 class is significant. To find some success, Colorado will need to become the Beavers of the South and start developing lots of unheralded talent. Given the nature of the recruiting landscape, it’s unlikely they’ll be able to start pulling in much E-2 talent.
#11: Washington State Cougars
What I Said Last Summer
The Cougars had a rough year in 2012
“They simply don’t have enough talent to compete at a high level in the Pac-12 right now.”
“Given the fact that the Cougs will never be able to attract enough E-2 talent to compete with the big dogs consistently, having a system coach in place is critical.”
“Although the ceiling is low due to location, the Cougars can only get better.”
2012 Season Recap
Cougars fans probably want me to skip this section. It was not a good year. Washington State went 3-9 overall and 1-8 in conference play to finish in the bottom two of the conference standings for the 6th consecutive year. The lone bright spot was a victory over Washington in the Apple Cup.
Talent Summary
Thirty-three of Washington State’s scholarship players are tier 4 or 5 guys. That’s too many, and signifies a real lack of depth. Additionally, the Cougars only have eight E-2 players on the roster, only one of which has been with the program for more than a year. With only 10 scholarship seniors, and 13 scholarship juniors, Mike Leach won’t be able to bring in another big class for at least a few more years, unless there’s a significant amount of attrition.
What the Future Holds
Under normal circumstances, it wouldn’t be time to panic. Mike Leach has only been at the helm for a year and hasn’t had the time it takes to successfully build a program or implement a new system. That said, these are not normal circumstances. The Cougars are trapped in the Pac-12 North, which is probably the 2nd toughest division in college football. In addition, recruiting talent to Pullman is difficult; recruiting talent to Pullman when the on-field product has been poor, is impossible. Unless Washington State can start winning, which could possibly help recruiting, the future is bleak. And that’s the problem; the Cougars need talent to win but they need to start winning to attract talent. At this point, Leach should be considered a hero if he can get the Cougars back into a bowl game. In 2013, six wins would be a miracle.
#10: Oregon State Beavers
What I Said Last Summer
Can the Beavers continue to overachieve?
“Last year (2011) was rough, but for most of the last decade Oregon State has been a tough team. They’ve never had elite talent, which makes some of their wins (USC twice) truly remarkable. They’ve always overachieved.”
“The Beavers are in dire need of explosive skill position players on offense. The North division is going to be brutal for the foreseeable future and recruiting isn’t likely to pick up.”
“I think Riley is one of the best coaches in the country… that said, his teams cannot compete at a high-level without improving their talent. ”
2012 Season Recap
Once again, the Beavers played considerably better than their talent-level would indicate possible. They finished 10-3 overall and 7-2 in conference, where their only losses came to Oregon (#2 AP Poll) and Stanford (#4 AP Poll). They also came remarkably close to beating Texas in the Holiday Bowl despite one of the worst offensive line performances in the history of modern football.
Talent Summary
The Beavers have enough tier-3 talent to be competitive and field some depth. That said, they don’t have enough E-2 talent to compete with the conference elite. Until that changes Oregon State will have to continue overachieving and shoot for the occasional upset. It’s worth noting that with only 12 scholarship seniors, the Beavs won’t be taking a big class in 2014.
What the Future Holds
Oregon State is an anomaly. No other team in the entire country wins as many games with as little talent (remember, we’re using a combination of the various recruiting rankings to objectively quantify “talent”). I’m done betting against Mike Riley. That guy is a truly great coach. I don’t know how the OSU staff continues to turn a team full of tier 3-5 players into conference contenders, but they do. Eventually, the lack of talent catches up with them, as it did in their losses to Oregon, Stanford and Texas, all far more talented teams. At the end of the day, Oregon State is unable to recruit at the level necessary to compete with the elite. Due to their location and lack of even regional notoriety, the Beavers will continue to struggle on the recruiting front, preventing them from being true challengers for the conference title. Nonetheless, expect Riley and his staff to continue overachieving and winning more games than they should.
#9: Arizona Wildcats
What I Said Last Summer
Arizona could jump up these rankings
“The current state of this team is the product of an inability to meet expectations in recruiting.”
“With Rich Rodriguez and his spread offense coming on board this year, there’s hope in Tucson, if for no other reason than his ability to bring in higher quality talent than Stoops was able to.”
“Unlike the three teams below it in the rankings, Arizona has a real chance to move up in the coming years. Rich Rodriguez could end up being very successful in this conference and I won’t be surprised to see huge improvements in recruiting.”
“Look for the team to struggle in Rich Rod’s first couple of years as they transition to a new system without the adequate talent necessary to make it successful.”
2012 Season Recap
In Rich Rodriguez’s first year, the Wildcats had a very solid season. They finished 8-5 (4-5 in conference) with a win over Nevada in the New Mexico Bowl. The team had tough back-to-back losses against Oregon State (35 – 38) and Stanford (48 – 54 in OT), but bounced back nicely when the season could have collapsed, a sign of good coaching. More important than Arizona’s record was the excitement that Rodriguez was able to generate in his first season at the helm.
Talent Summary
The 2013 class accounts for six of Arizona’s 13 tier E-2 players, meaning that 1) the expected production from that talent isn’t likely to be seen immediately, and 2) that the overall talent level of the roster is improving. In 2013, the Wildcats were able to take a big class (27 commitments) due to heavy attrition, and the 2014 class seems to be progressing similarly. With only eight scholarship seniors and 74/85 scholarship spots filled (not including walk-ons), the coaches must be expecting quite a bit more attrition after this season considering the fact that they’ve already landed 22 commitments (not to mention a couple incoming transfers).
What the Future Holds
Things are looking bright in Tucson. After a rough stretch, the program is finally moving in the right direction. Rodriguez may not have lived up to expectations at Michigan, but many observers believe he was put in a difficult position during his time with the Wolverines. Last season proved that Rodriguez hasn’t lost his coaching chops. As he has more time to implement his system and add talent, Arizona should continue to improve. With so much in-state talent, there might not be another team in the conference with more opportunity for rapid improvement. The 2014 class is already looking really solid, and combined with a couple high profile tier-E transfers coming in, expect the Wildcats to be 7th in these rankings by this time next year.
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Chris was born in Montevideo, Uruguay, but made his way to Oregon by the age of five, when he attended his first game at Autzen Stadium. A huge sports fan at a young age, Chris grew up playing football, basketball and golf. Although realizing he isn’t likely to play in the NFL or NBA, Chris still holds on to hopes of being a professional golfer should his unfortunate putting woes take a turn for the better. A bit of a platypus, he attended both Oregon State and Oregon during his collegiate days where he earned a business degree in Finance and Business Administration. Chris works for Daimler Trucks North America in Portland, and plans to get his MBA from the University of Oregon.
Chris has been an active member in the recruiting community since 2005. He studies the intricacies of recruiting and is particularly intrigued by talent evaluation techniques. He is currently working on developing his own scouting reports for every scholarship player on the UO roster. Chris lives with his wife, Katrina, and his two-year-old son Lucas (a future dual-threat QB).