The Fishwrap Pregame Analysis – Having a Holiday with Halliday, Ducks vs Cougs

Bob Laws FishWrap, FishWrap Archive

from Video

This Saturday, the Washington State Cougars come to town for a 7 pm match up between the Blur and the Air Raid offenses.  Think trying to hit a cheetah with a sling shot.

Now for the mandatory stats.

The Ducks lead the series 45-38-7 and have won six in a row over the Cougs.  Washington State’s last win in the series came in 2006 in Pullman over then-16th-ranked Oregon.  The Cougars’ last win in Eugene was a painful loss for Oregon, 55-16.  Ducks QB Marcus Mariota is in first place in ESPN’s Total Quarterback Rating (QBR) at 97.0.  The stat that stands out for me is that after six games and 165 passing attempts on the season, Mariota has yet to throw an interception!  Better than that, going back to the Stanford game last year, Mariota has a Pac-12 record 233 passes without an interception!

Washington State’s Connor Halliday with 2200+ yards, ranks 10th in the nation and second in the Pac-12 to only Sean Mannion (at 2500+ yards) of the bark rats.  Halliday will be facing the 5th-best pass efficiency defense in the country.

Let’s take a look at three formations that I noticed Wazzu likes to run.Image1a

In the above photo, the lone back comes out and you have five possible receivers depending on what the defense does.

Image1

In this photo (above), it is the same formation, but the lone back stays behind to block.  However, the RB can block and release — and become a fifth receiver.

Image2

In the above formation, there are a number of options, for example the wideouts could gun down the sides and the two backs flare out to either side for a screen or dump-off pass.  However, I’m just going to talk about how they set up the run.

Image3

From the backside of the formation the RB, above in the red circle, will flare out to the left.

Image4

If the linebacker (yellow arrow, above) stays home (which he does), that puts one less defender to tackle the RB, who now becomes a receiver.

Image5

Notice that there are only two defenders close, the others are trying to play catch up.

Image6

Now the two wideouts block their defenders, which creates a tunnel that the running back-turned-receiver can run through.  This play went for 61 yards.  I think the Ducks have the speed, however, to keep this bottled up.

So how do you counter Mike Leach’s Air Raid?  You start by applying some heavy pressure up front.  I was impressed last week at Washington with the play of DT Wade Keliikipi and DEs DeForest Buckner and Tony Washington.  Throw in some pressure from WLB, Derrick Malone and SLB, Boseko Lokombo and you have the makings of a pretty tough time for any QB.  The Ducks DBs, Mitchell, Patterson, Jackson and Ekpre-Olomu play like they’re already in the NFL, and that just has to give nightmares to anyone planning on throwing the ball.

So, what are we looking at this weekend?  Consider that Halliday has been picked 13 times in seven games, or an average of just under two per game, and I expect we will pick at least three of his passes.

The Cougars’ run game is nearly nonexistent with just over 66 yards per game.  I expect that the Ducks’ front seven will cut that in half.  All in all, WSU should have enough wins this year to go Bowling, as they are already 4-2 in the win-loss column.  Their fifth win just won’t come at Oregon’s expense.  Wazzu will score Saturday night, just not a lot.

Final Score: Ducks 59, Cougs 17

 

Bob Laws, Flagstaff, Arizona and Charles Fischer, Eugene, Oregon

 

 

 

For the Exciting 2024 Football Season….

We will be publishing between four and six articles per week during the football season, as we skip Saturdays with all the distraction of GameDay for us. Check through the week, and in particular check for Analysis articles on most Fridays.

The Our Beloved Ducks Forum (OBD) is where we we discuss the article above and many more topics, as it is so much easier in a message board format over there.  At the free OBD forum we will be posting Oregon Sports article links, the daily Press Releases from the Athletic Department and the news coming out every day.

Our 33 rules at the free OBD Forum can be summarized to this: 1) be polite and respectful, 2) do not tell anyone what to think, feel or write, and 3) no reference of any kind to politics. Easy-peasy!

OBD Forum members….we got your back.  No Trolls Allowed!