Considering the early signing that took place–what is the probability of the Ducks achieving the recruiting “Triple Crown” I wrote of in this past week? I was curious, crunched some simple numbers and thought I would update you on the potential, and give us some discussion points as well. I really don’t have time/energy after a long work day to spend 3-4 hours creating a typical article, but wanted to share my thoughts and ponder these points in an abbreviated format.
The Biggest Surprise? Projected Total Numbers
For me, (on the positive) it was Coach Mario Cristobal telling us in his press conference that either five or six players will enroll early at Oregon for the winter term. This means those scholarships (lets say five) are applied to last year’s 25 player limit. Sometimes due to players not getting in, transfers, or a variety of reasons the full 25 players per year allowed to be signed–those numbers in February are not present in the following December.
Thus players from the next year who enroll early are counted toward the prior year and thus you can sign a larger class. I am going to target 30 total being signed and if Oregon did–it would break one of the Recruiting Triple Crown categories, the total number record that sits at 29 from 2007. With 13 currently signed, it means that the Oregon coaching staff is going to be busy over the next six weeks acquiring 17 more to sign in early February.
Fortunately, they have seven more verbal commitments of which I believe most will follow through on in February and the coaching staff is in on ton more that are deciding. I believe the total number of players signed will break the record!
Can Oregon Break the “Core” Record? Possibly….
As you recall, having eight players or more that are four or five-star players is a good recruiting year, and not often achieved at Oregon. Regardless of the number signed, I like to see this number of higher ranked players as the “Core” for that recruiting class. Last year the Ducks stunned everyone with nine, and presently have six of those coveted players. The record is 12, and thus getting to 13 is the target!
Oregon is in on three 5-star players and heavily favored with two of them. The number of 4-star players seriously considering the Ducks are more than I wish to write or cover now, but I believe that of the remaining 17 slots that Oregon will sign one 5-star, eight 4-stars players, and eight three star players. Thus getting to a total of 15 of these core players and hence achieving a second category of the “Recruiting Triple Crown.”
It is simply amazing we are having this discussion of breaking three recruiting records with all that has happened, and if even only one is achieved–our hats off to Coach Cristobal and his staff.
The Toughest Category to Beat? The Average stars per Player…
The target is beating a 3.57 star average per player signed and Oregon is currently at a 3.38 average with the 13 who have given their Letter of Intent (LOI) on Wednesday. The projection I list above would put Oregon at a 3.50 average, of which would be an amazing achievement, but not a record. If Cristobal decides to try another 3-star project and sign 31–that average will drop, but if he adds another 5-star (or two!) then the record is possible after all.
I know–kinda nerdy for recruiting–just looking at numbers, but everyone else covers the other items while I look at the relevance of the class compared to the past. Given the momentum picking up, the “working harder than everyone else” ethic of this staff–I believe we will enjoy the announcements that come this February.
I am saying for certain that we will see two of the three records broken and the last one is “iffy” and truly a coin-flip. My friends–what do you think? How many, if any, recruiting records will the Ducks break?
Charles Fischer (FishDuck)
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