HO, HO, HO!
Come on JJ! Why after going 2-3 last week, are you laughing? Have you no shame, Sir? Wizard? Wizard!
All right. I must cop to the fact that like the Wizard of Oz, last week I was a good man (I hope, you may want to check with my spouse?) but a very bad Wizard. I got COVID-cursed on my pick of ‘the’ Ohio State University to cover against Northwestern, when a number of Buckeyes players were virus benched. But that’s the way the piggy bank crumbles in 2020.
All college football (CFB) bets are subject to COVID-interruptus in 2020, and CFB injury reporting is a rumor when compared to the NFL. But I flat out missed on my pick of the champ game down south that went (Way) “Over” when the Florida O rolled the Tide D, and the Bama O said, ‘see ya later Gator,’ to the Florida defense.
Hey Gary Danielson and Pawall Finebaum, how about them great, brutal, like no other the world has ever witnessed, SEC defenses! Want to know more about those awesome Strength Everywhere Conference defenses? Ask Bo Pelini. If, you can find him? Bo has left the Baton Rogue building.
CBS 17 Twitter
Lawrence has thrown for 22 TDs to only 4 INTs through the limited 2020 season.
The Domers, the very epitome of an ‘ashes of tradition’ program (thank you Brian Kelly) turned into ashes against an all-hands-on-deck Clemson defense. You think Sir Lawrence of Long Locks not being able to play in South Bend, might have made a difference?
Fortunately for the Wizard (?), Clemson easily covered the spread. And so did the Oregon Ducks. QUACK!
You beat an undermanned Clemson team in South Bend, and then get blown out by an all present and accounted for Dabo-Do team, and you definitely deserve to be in the Playoff Final Four, right, Brian? Right? The other good news? You get to be blown out in Dallas instead of in Pasadena; with family members watching!
So at 30-17 year-to-date against the spread, (even though the Wizard’s crystal ball took a nap last week) let’s press on, shall we?
While this bowl season is rewarding a whole bunch of losing teams (I’m looking at you, SEC) we are getting rewarded with a make-up game when No. 12 Coastal Carolina (CC) plays Liberty on Boxing Day, December 26th. With Liberty having to COVID-cancel its regular season game versus CC, we were rewarded instead with a great CC versus BYU match-up. When it comes to this postponed contest, don’t give me Liberty, but do give me the Over 61.5.
No. 19 Louisiana did not get to play CC for the Sun Belt title. In another bowl game being played on Boxing Day, I expect the Ragin’ Cajuns will rage-out versus UTSA, roll over the Roadrunners and cover the 13.5. Win one for Wiley Coyote!
Eugene Johnson
The Ducks rolled over the Buffalos in 2019 to the tune of a 45-3 home victory
Colorado plays No. 20 Texas -12.5 on December 29th in the Alamo Bowl. CU running back Jarek Broussard is second in the nation with 162.6 rush yards per game. And CU’s head coach Karl Dorrell, whose hire buffaloed many, delivered one of the best stories of a sad 2020 season. But without stud linebacker Nate Landsman who went to ground in the Utah game, I don’t think this Alamo will be a battle the Buffaloes will want to remember.
I like the Longhorns in what is likely to be Longhorns warrior, QB Sam Ehlinger‘s, last college game. Texas will cover for Sam the Man and for he’s-still-here-because-Urban-isn’t, Texas head coach, Tom (but I’m a Mensa member!) Herman.
No. 15 Iowa -14 versus the Show-Me’s on December 30th. Missouri went 5-5 in 2020. 5-5 with the 5 wins coming against teams with a combined 13-36 record. I like the Hawkeyes to cover, I do. But when it comes to putting my shekels down, please show me the Over 50.5. (And the $?)
Sooner Club Twitter
The Sooners’ Spencer Rattler has led a four-game win streak to close out the CFB regular season.
The Cotton Bowl – No. 7 Florida -3 versus No. 6 Oklahoma where the 1st NY6 big time money bowl game kicks off on December 30th in the Cotton Bowl. Bowl games often come down to ‘want to.’ What team wants to be there the most? UF’s outstanding TE, Kyle Pitts, has already decided that playing in anything other than a Playoff game is well, the pits, thus Kyle has opted out of this game. I think an Oklahoma team that started slow but finished strong and won the B12 title with a revenge victory over Iowa State, will definitely show up ready and willing to play. But +3 is too skinny for me. Instead, I’m going Over 68.5.
CHRISTMAS DAY BONUS PICK – MAC runner-up Buffalo versus CUSA runner-up Marshall -3. I hope your Christmas Cup will runneth over. And I also hope this game will give me the gift of going Over 54.5.
Here’ some good Christmas news in a season that needs some. Tennessee (because of COVID, right?) will not be Volunteering for the Liberty Bowl. Instead of Tennessee prolonging a most disappointing season, a far more deserving 9-2 Army team will play West Virginia. The football gods willing, I’ll have a pick on this game and the balance of the NY6 games, next week.
SUMMARY:
Buffalo versus Marshall – Over 54.5
Liberty versus No. 12 Coastal Carolina – Over 61.5
No. 19 LA-LA -13.5 versus UTSA
No. 20 Texas -12.5 versus Colorado
No. 15 Iowa versus Missouri – Over 50.5
No. 6 Oklahoma versus No. 7 Florida – Over 68.5
Do check with the pros when betting and consider their advice, especially at a site such as this.
Merry Christmas, Happy Holidays. And remember, never to bet (or eat) more than a bottle of Mylanta can cure.
Jon Joseph
Aiken, South Carolina
Top Photo by Eugene Johnson
Jon Joseph grew up in Boston, Massachusetts but has been blessed to have lived long enough in the west to have exorcised all east coast bias. He played football in college and has passionately followed the game for seven decades. A retired corporate attorney Jon has lectured across the country and published numerous articles on banking and gaming law. Now resident in central Oregon Jon follows college football across the nation with a focus on the Conference of Champions and the Ducks.
As writers on FishDuck know, they hear that Mr. FishDuck wants articles that are informative, entertaining and generate discussion. But Jon expanded that further with being accurate in his season of picks. Frankly … it is about the only thing I’ve seen go well in 2020, save Our Beloved Ducks winning the conference again.
Official Rollout of the Our Beloved Ducks Forum is on track for public release on this Saturday, December 26th as we are in the final beta-testing now.
My apologies to Jon for my taking all day before commenting, as I’ve been busy making directions for how to use the technology in the new forum. My objective is to make it easy for everyone to use, or have easy directions to turn to that we never have on other sites.
A touching Christmas Eve thread from Daniel Brown of The Athletic:
https://twitter.com/BrownieAthletic/status/1342168116042760192
Thanks for that.
Indeed.
Notre Dame is who we thought they were and Brian Kelly’s insufferable antics make my teeth hurt. SC is who we thought they were and that shot of Clay Helton doubled over at the end of the Oregon game says it all.
SPOT ON SF!
My only thoughts on hitting pause on a Bama cover is a concern over the glue of the Tide O-line, center Dickerson, being out?
But next guy up at Bama? I don’t know the name of the dude. However, I am willing to bet that he is at least a 4* recruit or better?
To save the ‘suspense’ of having to tune in next week, I’m down on Bama in this game, WAY down. Like, I got it at -14.5 down? And I already spent the winnings on my wife’s Christmas gift, OVER.
IMO, the 4 spot should not have been a choice between ND and A+M.. Rather, it should have between conference champs OK and Cincinnati. But when did anyone care about conference championships?
I am sick and tired of this $cam.
Haha! Your secret’s safe with me, OVER.
After throwing nothing but shade at Oregon all season, Wilner , reluctantly thinks the Ducks lucked out getting ISU, and will win by default.
Oregon (+4.5) vs. Iowa State (Fiesta Bowl, Jan. 2): The Ducks drew the best possible opponent — any other NY6 option (Oklahoma or an SEC team) would have posed far greater trouble on the size-and-speed front. ISU coach Matt Campbell is one of the best in the country. He has one of the top players in tailback Breece Hall and a veteran quarterback in Brock Purdy. But Oregon’s roster is more talented. And the Cyclones are coming off a loss in the Big 12 title game. Pick: Oregon
He is spot on regarding the roster advantage; IF, all Ducks are on deck? And Oregon will also have a big speed advantage.
But playing IA ST is easier than going against an SEC team? HUH? Which SEC team is he talking about? Auburn, Ole Miss, Tennessee, MS ST, Vandy, Kentucky, South Carolina, Arkansas?
The team that got hosed over and Oregon should be playing is 1L Indiana. But 3L Iowa State gets the nod?. Ohio State playing 6 games does not matter to the Grapevine Gurus, but 6-1 Indiana with its loss coming by 7 at Ohio State, only playing 7 games does matter?
This is another example of the inconsistent junk that comes out of the ‘committee of CFB experts.
Had Indiana defeated Ohio State and gone 7-0 with a B1G championship, do you think the Hoosiers would be in the final 4?
With their “SEC! SEC! SEC!” chant, that conference must have convinced a lot of people that it is elite from top to bottom….
Thanks Annie. The SEC has certainly convinced the Guys and Gals in Bristol and the gurus in Grapevine that no one plays ball like the SEC! The Hard Hitting, take no prisoners, SEC!
The UF vs Bama champ game extravaganza?
Nothing to see here, move right along.
There is NO way that the committee puts Indiana in the Final 4, the Hoosiers definitely don’t pass the EYE TEST. Clemson, without Lawrence gets a mulligan. But, if somehow, someway, the Hoosiers beat the Buckeyes, it was because the Buckeyes weren’t as good as everybody thought, so the B1G is out, and Texas A&M joins Alabama, Notre Dame & Clemson.
Isn’t having a group of EXPERTS doing a completely objective analysis just simply Peachy?
Ask Cincinnati?
A little surprised to see you take the over on the Iowa vs. Missouri game. Iowa generally plays very low scoring games in bowls. Missouri may get pushed around a lot and frequently stoned at the LOS in their run game.
I am thinking a 21-7 type of game on that one.
The rest I could get behind if I was a betting man……but alas I am not.
For the sake of your sanity, be happy you are not!
Good word of caution regarding Iowa/Missou. I just think Mizzou is bringing a more wide open O than the Hawkeyes have seen this season and will score. And I think that the Tigers D will give up points to Iowa?
I was attracted by the low 50.5 #. But, there is a sucker born every minute.
I found the following both interesting and troubling in regards to the future of CFB.
As of December 22, 2020, 1,958 CFB players were ‘in’ the transfer portal. 42% of the players in the portal beamed in 30 days prior to 12/22.
With CFB, at least for now, maintaining the 25-newcomer hard cap, many of these guys will have their existing scholarship taken away without finding a ‘greener pasture’ replacement scholarship. And add 1 free transfer into this mix?
The NCAA granted everyone who was on a roster in 2020 an extra year of eligibility. However and not surprisingly, the NCAA has not yet determined how this extra year of eligibility will affect overall football roster numbers in 2021, and going forward? For other sports, such as college baseball, the NCAA has already agreed to roster expansion. How can it not do so when it comes to CFB?
So, after the financial devastation wrought by COVID in 2020, schools are going to have to carry the extra expense of having additional players on scholarship. HMMMM?
The good news, if any? This is likely to be another impetus for an expanded playoff field and consequent revenue increase, before 2026? IMO, ESPN is not likely to object to coming with more playoff $ in exchange for 4 more impactful post season games. And the fans in Fansville are also likely to be all in when it comes to expanding the field to 8.
The Athletic’s influential CFB guy, Andy Staples, has just come on board in favor of playoff expansion. 5 P5 champs, a G5 rep and 2 AL teams in. He opines that fans whizzed about Oregon playing Bama in 2020, need to chill out. There will be anomalies with 8 teams but this is a fair trade for returning CFB to being coast-to-coast relevant and giving more teams a shot at the top drawer recruits. And the 2AL spots will help correct conference champ game upsets.
Of course the sting of conference game upsets sending a P5 team not in the top 25 to the playoff can largely be eliminated by getting rid of divisions and having the top 2 teams play for a conference title.
As we know, the only thing that is permanent in this life is change.
Oh how I long for the warm winds of change. I hope your prognosticating of another impetus for expanded playoff is as accurate as your bets have been this year.
I believe we will see an 8 team playoff soon, maybe not next year but soon.
Will that bring balance to the force? I don’t know, but it will get us closer.
I do think expansion is coming before 2026. And, may The Force be with you and the Ducks.
This virus will ruin how many seasons
Ahhhh… Mr. Joseph. “Odds Fellow” or “Odd Fellow”??
I always appreciate your football knowledge and reading your picks has been very interesting this year. May you have a blessed Bowl Season and may your bottle of Mylanta stay on the side line and never come in to play.
Thank you Jon, same to you, Sir. And thanks for putting some balance into my more wayward comments.
As to Odds or Odd? Likely both?
Revision. I listened to my partner in the desert. We waited to get down on Texas/CU. A good move as the odds moved in CU’s favor from Texas -12.5 to Texas -9.5. The line dropping by a FG is significant and I feel even better about going with Texas. Although I am conflicted going against the brother Pac-12 team playing in a bowl game in 2020.
UT with 6 opt outs, plus multiple injuries in their secondary. But, CO a run first team that spots their passing.
Last year, with nothing more on the line than this year, TX put a boot stomping on the Utes.
This. And this a big problem across the conference we love to Love and Hate? Starting players for most teams? More than decent Back ups? They’re not there.
Where for the most part, is the depth? The difference between starting CU, LB Landsman. and the 2nd string Buffaloes starting LB is huge.
Oh Wizard, 30-17 ATS, is darn impressive! Given the variables and extraneous distractions populating this season even more so. Who knows what the future holds? Your well honed guess has been great so far.
Ever since big Sam hollered out, “We’re baaack!” he and the Longhorns have looked as lost as ever since Mac Brown bounded away to the football hot bed that is North Carolina? Sadly the Longhorns will probably have enough left to wrap up the Buffs.
Thanks for the tip of the hat 30, but you are only as good as your last outing.
Yeah, I imagine not a day goes by without Sam wishing that he hadn’t mouthed off after the Sugar Bowl win over Georgia. Of course, when an SEC team takes a bowl L, we all know that it’s simply because the team did not want to be there against inferior competition, right?
In this sense, the 2020 Peach Bowl game, UGA vs Cincinnati, is a ‘no win’ deal for the Bearcats. Should Cincy pull the upset, like UCF did against Auburn, you know Dawgs fans will excuse the L on the Dawgs players not really giving a whip. I don’t care; I really want Cincy to win this game and put it in the faces of the ‘experts’ on the ‘playoff’ committee and the expert odds-makers. UGA has played better with erstwhile Trojans QB, JT Daniels, starting for the Dawgs. But this Georgia team lost both of its top 25 match ups in 2020 and still finished in the top 10. Meanwhile, 3L Florida at No.7 comes in 1 spot hire than an undefeated Cincy squad.
All of this makes me a happy camper because it’s this kind of ‘stuff’ that will get us to an 8 team playoff field sooner rather than later.
I’ll have a pick on the Peach Bowl and the balance of the NY6 games, next Thursday. I note the Ducks line has moved from -3 Iowa State at the open to today’s -4. Me thinks that the line will close somewhere around Iowa State -6?
Happy Holidays and Merry Christmas to you mu friend, and to all fellow and sister Ducks denizens!
JJ – if you don’t mind, could you opine on the driver(s) that are moving the line in the Duck game? Balancing out current bets, injury, or the ubiquitous dismissive narrative of eastern media Re Pac12/UO? If that’s a save for your piece next week, I can certainly wait.
I don’t bet more than 6 packs or off season woofing rights these days, so just curious.
I think much of the increase comes as the result of the average bettor simply focusing on IA ST being ranked 10 and the Ducks 25? This, and watching a Cyclones team that did have a good chance to defeat OK in the B12 champ game.
The Pac-12 this season has played way under the radar. Unless you are a Pac-12 fan the champ game Friday night was eclipsed by the big boy champ games played on Saturday.
And while I’d like to forget, the Ducks did lose to CAL and the Beavers. 2 teams that would be big underdogs vs Iowa State.
Not letting the cat out of the bag, but I am happy to see the Ducks getting more points.