The Odds of Oregon Winning The Pac-12 Football Title In 2021

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While the Pac-12 is often criticized for failing to register success in the NCAA, it can boast having what appears to be the meanest competition heading into next season. None of the other leagues can compare in terms of parity and it’s likely going to provide some of the best entertainment in college football.

There are seven teams which have been handed odds of +1500 or better to win the Pac-12 in 2021. The Pac-12 is the only power conference with no clear preseason favorite with negative odds. Clemson is at -800, while Ohio State is at -200, and Oklahoma -140 to win the other top conferences as outright favorites, USC and Oregon are both +275 on the NCAAF Odds board for the Pac-12.

They’re followed by Washington at +325, Arizona State at +450, UCLA at +1200, and Utah at +1400.

USC at +275 is considered to be the best bet of the bunch as they’ve drawn Stanford, Washington State, Oregon State and California in the North. They won’t have to play Oregon or Washington while every other Pac-12 side in the South will be playing either one or both of Oregon and Washington. This leaves them with a great advantage, especially given their roster, which stands out as the one bearing the most talent in the conference.

John McGillen of USC Athletics

USC is the “Best Bet?” Geez…

The scheduling does point to a repeat of the Pac-12 Championship Game but, of course, the Ducks are right there and have just as great of a chance.

Arizona State at +450 is not advised due to off-field issues surfacing recently. While they’re a very good team and are being talked up with good reason heading into their fourth season under Herm Edwards, they’re still 6-7 in league games over the last two years. They have back-to-back fixtures against USC and Washington in November, which could go a long way into deciding how their campaign ends. Arizona State has a good chance of making it to the final hurdle but it’s still hard to see them ousting Oregon, Washington, or USC.

Utah is considered to be a value pick at +1400 after making it out of the Pac-12 South in 2018 and 2019. They did lose on both occasions but the third time’s a charm, right? The Utes also boast former Baylor quarterback Charlie Brewer so things are looking good. However, they will have to prove their mettle against USC on October 9, and should they make it past, could make a run at the Championship Game for the third time in four years. They’re a pretty good bet if one’s looking for a Southern team that isn’t USC.

John McGillen of USC Athletics

I’m betting on these Ducks again-how about you?

California (+4000) believes they have a legitimate chance of making the Rose Bowl and have set the bar pretty high. They were unfortunate to be the team who suffered the worst of the COVID-19 regulations last term and sorely disappointed, but they expect to be a very formidable side in 2021, with the defense looking solid under Justin Wilcox and a number of proven players returning in key positions.

Meanwhile, ESPN has predicted all of Oregon’s 11 games. The Ducks are projected to win 9.5 games on the back of the network’s Football Power Index, which seeks to predict the way a season will turn out to be.

The model gives the Ducks’ odds above 50 percent against all opponents except Ohio State, with the team predicted to win over 90 percent of their five games in 2021. The Ducks are also projected to win the Pac-12 and play in the College Football Playoff but are 0.4 percent likely to win it all.

That is a pretty generous model for the Ducks; what are your picks?

Lakeside, Oregon
Top Photo by John McGillen of USC Athletics

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The SEC is about to become a big mess. If Ok and Tx join, then usually only 1 team out of Texas, Oklahoma, Alabama, Georgia, Florida, T A&M, Auburn, and LSU is going to the playoffs. Most likely Alabama because they are still a step above all the others.

That will leave Ohio St, Clemson and maybe Oregon, or Notre Dame as the other playoff teams.

The SEC teams will knock each other out of the playoffs with regular season losses against each other.

If Fla st or Miami get good again and NC stays a tough opponent, look for Clemson to move to the new big12 – so they can beat up on a weaker conference.


If the playoff goes to 12 the SEC will have 4 or 5 teams make it every year.

Jon Joseph


It turns out that the SEC/UT/OK discussions have been going on for close to 6 months.

Amazing that it took so long to leak out.

SEC Commissioner Sankey was a member of the working committee that suggested going to 12.

The SEC will have at a minimum, 3 team in every season and probably more as you suggest.

The B1G and the Pac-12 should walk back from the BCS/BCS times 2, so called Playoff, and tell the SEC to have fun swimming in its own pond.

Return to the Rose Bowl as it was and play other bowl games only versus one another. Go with the scheduling deal that USC cratered.

And hopefully, FOX will come B1G and decide to become the B1G + Pac-12’s sole broadcast and media partner. Kiss ESPN goodbye.

CFB going nation-wide has elevated the SEC and killed the Pac-12.


Not when they have slightly above 500 in conference records from beating each other up all season. So they will end up playing 9 cupcake games to make sure they have a winning record.


Besides, if they get that big, then Arkansas, Vanderbuilt, South Carolina will probably leave. Tennessee has a good team, but loses all the time.

I envision the SEC and ACC reforming into a super conference and a weaker conference. They are in the same geographical space.

Think of a super conference of:

Texas, Ok, Clemson, Miami, Fla St, Fla, Georgia, Alabama, Auburn, LSU, T A&M, and one more team (Notre Dame?).

Then teams like Ga Tech, Duke, Kentucky and others can play each other and have competitive games.


If the star freshmen are ready to contribute, then it could be a playoff year.

If it is just Kayvon and a bunch of mediocre players, then we could see a season like 2018. It is always all about the players.


Looks like there is going to be another musical chairs for conference realignment. I hope our new commissioner is talking to TCU, TT, OSU and Baylor.

Charles Fischer, Mr. FishDuck

The impression I get is that “religious” schools like BYU, TCU and Baylor would not be in the discussions.

I like have 16 teams of the original “Pac-8” being the “Surf” division, with the remaining Pac-12 schools along with TT, OK St. and two others joining the “Turf” division. (Name and idea from Jon Joseph originally) The Kansas schools were bandied about as the other two teams to join us…??

Concur with BYU, but TCU that would bring the Dallas/Ft Worth market, and Baylor, which would bring a number of excellent sports along with football. are far more secular today then they were at their founding.

But, don’t give up on going after Oklahoma + OK ST, Baylor and TCU and possibly TX Tech + even Texas. OK and TX would be big swinging whips in the Pac-12, not the case in the SEC, and they would make the Pac-12 extremely marketable.

Not B1G/SEC like money, but more than the B12 can bring in even it its current iteration.

Texas is excellent academically. The other schools mentioned above would be far better academically than a number of current Pac-12 members.


As I recall from previous considerations for adding teams to the PAC, certain school academic qualifications are important to the school presidents, who have always had a great say in the matter of what schools be invited to join the conference.

Jon Joseph

Of the schools Scott tried to bring over, only UT has sterling academics.

Jon Joseph

Great take.

I prefer Bill Connolly’s SP+ predicator to the, often screwy, FPI.

SP+ ranks the Ducks preseason #5. Has the Ducks with 8 projected W’s; a game a team should win by 7 or more points, and no Ls; projected L by 7 or more points.

4 Toss Up games; games predicted to finish within 7 points. At UW, at Utah, at UCLA and at Ohio State. Oregon is favored to win 3 of the 4 with at Ohio State being the only game the Ducks is not favored to win. SP+ gives Oregon a 42% chance to win in Columbus.

The next closest prediction for Oregon is a 51% chance to win in Seattle.

I will not root for the Utes against Oregon. However, I did get down on Utah at +1500 before the line moved.

Looking at the player’s returning to SLC, including Brian Covey who I think is now in his 8th season (!) and the transfers brought in at RB and as you so noted, the addition of Charlie Brewer, this will be an experienced team.

Except for at USC, where Utah in its history as a program has yet to win, Utah gets it toughest opponents, including ASU and Oregon, at home.

Make no mistake, Charlie Brewer is the real deal and likely the most impactful Pac-12 transfer in 2021. This will be Brewer’s 5th season as a P5 starting QB.

Unlike another QB with lots of experience, Oregon’s Anthony Brown, Brewer has played against + defeated top 25 teams, including Oklahoma and Texas. In 2019, Brewer led Baylor to the Sugar Bowl.

With the possible exception of Clovis who retrogressed somewhat, stats wise, in 2020, Brewer will be the more talented QB in every game he starts.

2 of Utah’s 3 OOC games are gimmes. And Utah will be favored when it plays at BYU. ( Utah is 1 of 5 Pac-12 teams teeing it up vs BYU in 2021.)

On paper, the Ducks should win the 2021 conference title. In a year of difficult conference road games, will it happen on the field of play?

Lou Farnsworth

Always a great analysis from your desk Jon. And always a nugget I never knew…..had no clue that Brewer was that good.

Jon Joseph

Thanks Lou.

Brewer is a perfect fit in the Utah system of offense.

He was 14 for 14 passing in the Utes spring game.