While we are all hoping for a season for the ages, just for sake of discussion, I thought I might throw out a little Donnie Downer perspective. I am looking at the schedule from three perspectives. The first, if the sky HAS fallen…we lost to the Beavers. If the sky IS falling…we lose to Boise State. If there are dark clouds on the horizon…we lose to UCLA, among others. Mr. FishDuck took time from his fun at https://gamblestar.com/ to commiserate with me on these awful scenarios…
Remember, this is just for fun and gives us something to occupy some time while we all await the opening boot on Saturday, the 31st of THIS month at 4:30 at Autzen. (Last I heard there were still tickets available. We need to make every game a sell-out.)
One more thing. I know very little about football. I am just a-fan-in-the-stands who loves the Ducks. I defer to all of you out there who know the game and welcome your feedback and input. At the end of the article, I will share my prediction for the season, and it might surprise some of you.
IDAHO: In 2023, FBS teams were 113-4 versus FCS teams. One of those four was the Vandals taking it to Nevada to the tune of 33-6. The College Football Simulator gives the Ducks a 99% change of winning and has the final as 51-9. Sorry, Vandals, but the Simulator is being too kind to you. ZERO Chance.
BOISE STATE: Andy Avalos (Remember him?) was fired late last season and Spencer Danielson takes over as the head coach. The Broncos have some firepower on offense with former five-star QB recruit Malachi Nelson transferring in from USC.
Dirk Koetter is back from retirement to take over as the Offensive Coordinator, and this will be the first test for the Duck defense. I would be a little more nervous if this game were being played on that blue rug in Boise. Is B.S. capable of winning this game? Of course, it could happen, and the sky would indeed feel like it is falling. Ducks need to be focused. 5% Chance.
Things will go a different direction this time in Corvallis. (Photo by Eugene Johnson)
OREGON STATE: The game’s at Reser, and the Beavers will be motivated. Oregon’s offensive line may get a bit of a test, but the Ducks score early and often. The sky will not have fallen. ZERO Chance.
UCLA: Ducks coming off a bye-week. New era in LALA land. If DeShaun Foster’s initial press conference is any indication of things to come, it is not going to be pretty. Losing defensive coordinator D’Anton Lynn to the Trojans (Damn) is gigantic. Foster brought in Eric Bieniemy as the offensive coordinator and something about that hire scares me just a little. With two weeks to get ready for this game, Ducks should handle, but it’s in LA…strange things happen in LA. I give Bruins 20% Chance.
MICHIGAN STATE: The return of Jonathan Smith with former OSU QB Aidan Chiles, who is the real deal. Word is Smith made a good hire in Joe Rossi from Minnesota as the defensive coordinator. Spartans have major questions in the trenches, and any concern I have here is Duckies looking ahead to the Buckeyes. Assuming that does not happen, ZERO Chance.
OHIO STATE: Chip Kelly. He must have this game with the Ducks at Autzen circled, and the Buckeyes are scary, no doubt about it. Hopefully both teams are undefeated at this point and all eyes will be on Autzen. Home-field advantage to the Ducks, thus I will give Buckeyes a 40% Chance.
PURDUE: Interesting factoid here, as the Boilermakers are in Corvallis on the 21st of September, (Our bye-week) so Duck fans could get an in-person look at the team with the giant drum. They are picked 18th in an 18-team league. Hopefully there is no Buckeye hangover either way and the Ducks cruise. Home team always has a chance, and I put it at less than 5% Chance.
ILLINOIS: Should be a game where Ducks score lots and lots of points. (Well, hopefully all the games are like that.) The Illini are probably a tad better than most folks think, but still should not be much of a physical match-up for the Ducks. Never rains at Autzen and the Ducks never lose at Autzen. Zero Chance.
MICHIGAN: The Big House, and as I recall, last time we visited, things went well. Defending National Champs may feel they are not getting the respect they deserve. Can the Oregon offense handle the Wolverine defense? (Likely what this game will come down to) For sure Big Blue has a chance. Am I too low at 35% Chance?
Football at Wisconsin is worse than the Palouse? (Screenshot from Fox Sports Video)
MARYLAND: If this game were being played at College Park, I would be nervous. Still, Maryland is a real program and has won 23 games and three bowls over the last three seasons. Replacing Tagovailoa is probably their biggest challenge. 20% Chance.
WISCONSIN: This will be the final installment in the Duck’s schedule with eight games in a row with no bye-week. Mid-November at Camp Randall…what could possibly go wrong? Oh my. I like Luke Fickell though he was unable last year to have the same success with the Air Raid that he had in Cincy. Bad weather can always be a factor in the Midwest this time of the year and that could favor the Badgers. I’ll give the “jump-around” folks a 35% Chance.
WASHINGTON: Well, it’s come down to this. I think Jedd Fisch was a great hire for the Huskies, and the Ducks were lucky we drew ASU last year not UA. Lots of turnover for sure on their roster, and I am assuming Lanning and Company will be motivated. How fun would it be to be coming into this game undefeated? Autzen would be rocking like never before, and that’s saying something. Just to show you my feelings for the Fuskies, ZERO Chance.
So, I cannot imagine a scenario where either the “Sky Has Fallen” or the “Sky Is Falling.” However, clearly dark clouds are certainly possible. Ohio State and Michigan are obviously two games that jump out as possible losses. Throw in UCLA and maybe even Maryland…and then there is Wisconsin. And I apologize in advance for even mentioning….no…won’t do it.
My prediction is 11-1 with the loss being one most won’t expect…that game at Madison troubles me. I look forward to hearing others’ predictions!
Don Marsh
Eugene, Oregon
Top Photo by Craig Strobeck
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I am a transplanted Hawkeye who loves the Ducks because they realize there is more to football than just defense. Owner of Emerald Bridge Club with wife Sherri, and is a past State Champion in Horseshoes.