There has been so much written about Oregon football in the last couple of days, yet I sense there is a major element to the remainder of the season that national pundits miss. It is a combination of components that I’ve been kicking around that came to fruition after the big victory over Ohio State. I had to take a break from my fun at betpack to ponder it all, and present to you how I believe Our Beloved Ducks are going to surprise the nation.
Yet, we need to set the stage with important aspects that lead up to my conclusion. First, I’ve read how many in the media believe that Oregon was not really the best team on the field, and did not deserve to win. Everyone noted how the Ducks missed many scoring opportunities, but did the Buckeyes? No, either Ohio State scored on their opportunities, or were stopped. Let’s look at how the 32-31 result could have been different…
Points Oregon Missed
Two points-Oregon does not miss the first extra point, and then kicks the second one as usual.
Three points-It is very unusual for the Duck kicker to miss a routine 44 yard Field Goal with no wind and perfect conditions.
Three points-Had Lanning decided to take the easy three points on the 4th and Goal in the fourth quarter instead of going for it, and missing.
Three points-This is what Oregon should have had from the pass reception/fumble that Jeffrey Bassa obtained, but was not given credit for as NBC analysts admitted. With a short field–a Field Goal is the minimum the Ducks should have received from the turnover that should have awarded.
That is a total of eleven points and added to 32 becomes 43 total points for Oregon. Minus seven points from Ohio State for their first touchdown that should not have happened due to the Bassa turnover, and that reduces the Buckeye score to 24 points.
Potential Final Score: Oregon 43 Ohio State 24
The Bassa interception that was not reviewed and confirmed. (Photo by Steven Chan)
All of that could/should have occurred with very little difference in the game. Would that have been considered close to you? Yet how far were we actually away from that occurring? (Not much) This game should not have been as close as it was, and yes, this is why we play the game. Yet we cannot ignore what the real opportunities were for the Ducks in this contest.
The Biggest Surprise for the Nation…
In a recent FishDuck article, I suggested that the national perception of Oregon was about to pop, and one of those changes was how Oregon was known only for their offense over the years. Yet in a recent video we listen to how the analysts at PFF give their player rankings in the game, and their impressions of Oregon. They were stunned at how Oregon outrushed the Buckeyes, which points to a stouter Oregon offensive line, and a Duck defensive line holding down Ohio State.
For proof, they noted how only Dillon Gabriel (87.6) had a higher PFF score in this game than defensive tackle Derrick Harmon. (86.0) They raved at how Harmon changed so many plays, and how well Oregon plugged the gaps to contain Ohio State. They were especially impressed with how Buckeye running back Quinshon Judkins only had a 2.3 yard-per-carry against the Ducks with no broken tackles. This is noteworthy since they stated that he was the best running back in the nation the last two years at breaking tackles…but not at Autzen.
Their quotes confirmed what many of us felt as we watched the game. PFF thought that Oregon’s front seven on defense really stepped up, and how the Ducks were, as they stated, “the more physical team.”
Let that sink in…Oregon was more physical than Ohio State? And yet Oregon attacked deep downfield with four long passes that no one would have thought possible going into this game. PFF stated that the Ducks produced this “against one of the best defenses in college football.” So Oregon was more physical, and yet more skilled with the passing game than what the Buckeyes brought to Eugene?
Derrick Harmons rip-fumble recovery epitomized the strength of Oregon’s trenches. (Photo by Steven-Chan)
In short, Our Beloved Ducks have one of the nations better defenses, and an offense that has been gradually getting better as players mesh through the season. It was shown on Saturday that this new Oregon program under Dan Lanning has been built in the trenches to match the best of the B1G, and the SEC where he coached before. The “no-defense” and “finesse” labels of the past were shed from Oregon between what the nation witnessed, and what the analysts reported.
Ohio State is thought to have the most talented roster in college football, and they will come back with a vengeance. Taking on all that talent with a chip-on-their-shoulder is not what I prefer for the Ducks, but considering all the disrespect given to our victory–I am confident that Oregon will come back to prove they belong in the elite. Some of what has been written cuts deep, and will generate new intensity in Oregon’s players. A rematch will be epic…
Why the Slow Roll-Out?
While I hoped for more downfield passing that did materialize in the game, it is still evident that a ton of the offense remains under-wraps. I have been surprised, as normally you need all your weapons available to win games, but now I sense that Lanning knows that the talent level on the team can win without revealing too much for future opponents. Then I read an article recently that reported that Coach Lanning consulted with NFL teams to learn how they managed such a very long season.
Since Oregon’s season could be 16 or 17 games and with only six of them in the books, many delaying aspects begin to make more sense to me. With an upgraded roster, a different approach is reasonable, even if it takes us fans a while to adjust. While the Duck defense did blitz five and even six defenders occasionally versus Ohio State, many of the more exotic and complicated blitzes have not been shown. My gut tells me that the defensive playbook is only half-completed, and the offensive playbook has another 40% more to show over the season.
Yet until the Playoffs…how much do you need to show? If you can win with a smaller, but refined playbook–doesn’t that make sense? And due to the expanded playoffs, the “Style-Points” are now not necessary. Winning to make the Playoffs is what matters, and if you can save your exotic stuff for later and not waste it on running up the score–shouldn’t you? I think we know Lanning’s answer, and it is a new philosophy for us to adjust to.
Dan Lanning knows that improving the downfield passing attack further will elevate the entire offense. (Photo by Eric Becker)
The Secret at Oregon…
The Ducks surprised everyone with how well they played against a major ‘Natty contender, and flexed their new strength in the trenches. Yet the margin of victory could have been greater, and scoring potential of the team has not been realized. The defense is improving and jelling–even as one of the more talented ones in CFB already. This last game was not won on a miracle play, nor with something strange that would never happen again. In fact, (as shown above) the Ducks left a ton on the table.
When you consider that Oregon’s performance versus Ohio State was not their best, how both the offense and defense are still rolling elements out–it is evident that the secret at Oregon is the enormous upside remaining in this team. Oregon fans sense it, and while national pundits would be reluctant to admit it…those of us who are Greybeard age can see how the Ducks have another 30-35% of potential improvement that could be attained.
Of course there are no assurances that potential can be reached, and it also assumes some luck with injuries. But with a lack of a clearly dominant team in CFB, Oregon is poised to truly make a run at the ‘Natty like no other Duck team in the past. Do you believe in Oregon’s upside to the degree I do? Let me know in the only free, and civilized Oregon football forum out there because…
“Oh, how we love to ponder about Our Beloved Ducks!”
Charles Fischer (Mr. FishDuck)
Eugene, Oregon
Top Photo by Eric Becker
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Charles Fischer has been an intense fan of the Ducks, a season ticket holder at Autzen Stadium for 38 years and has written reports on football boards for over 26 years. Known as “FishDuck” on those boards, he is acknowledged for providing intense detail in his scrimmage reports, and in his Xs and Os play analyses. He is single, has a daughter Christine, and resides in Eugene Oregon where he was a Financial Advisor for 36 years.
He now focuses full-time on Charitable Planned Giving Workshops for churches and non-profit organizations in addition to managing his two Oregon Football Websites, of FishDuck.com and the Our Beloved Ducks forum. He is a busy man!
He does not profess to be a coach or analyst, but simply a “hack” that enjoys sharing what he has learned and invites others to correct or add to this body of Oregon Football! See More…