I have to say that I was surprised by the results of the B1G recruiting for the 2025 class. Yes, there are some who will be signed in the February period, but over 90% of recruiting is done, and it was quite interesting to see the breakdown in Oregon’s new conference. I even had to take time away from my fun at Binance casino to marvel at the different strata that B1G recruiting settled into.
My frame of reference is the Rivals.com rankings, and to learn why I use them over 247, ESPN or On3–please see my explanation right here as it makes a ton of sense from a number of angles. Do know as well that Rivals looks at the rankings of your top-20 players, and that is it. A team is not given more points for 29 recruits signed versus 22 recruits, and looking at an apple-to-apples comparison is a comforting process when examining at the results.
The area I focus upon are the Blue-Chip athletes, the players who fit into the 4-Star and 5-Star rankings with Rivals. While there are exceptions such as Oregon in 2010, it has been shown that teams who have a high ratio of Blue-Chip players on their team have the best chance to win National Championships, or ‘Nattys, as Uncle Cliff used to say. Truly, the more you have of this quality of athlete, the odds become highly elevated to do well in future Playoff scenarios for your team.
Let’s look at the result of B1G recruiting, and recall that Oregon has the highest average rating for their top-20 recruits, and thus why the Ducks are No. 1 in the nation for the 2025 Class with Rivals.
I broke the teams down into three categories based upon my hundreds of hours digesting college football recruiting over the last 38 years I’ve been an Oregon season-ticket holder. My observation is that you must have at least seven of the Blue-Chippers each year to build a roster that is routinely in the Top-25 in the nation. Occasionally, a team will be built on 3-Stars who developed well, and is surrounded by a couple of high 4-Star or 5-Star skill players. Teams like Oregon’s 2010 or 2014 roster can make the ‘Natty, but winning is difficult.
The depth on the defensive line has dramatically increased Oregon’s sacks in 2024. (Screenshot from CBS Sports Video)
The top three in that first group of teams you know will be contending for titles between their coaches, and the amazing recruiting they provide for their teams. The next five teams can contend for an occasional good year when things line up between mature developed 3-Stars along with these reasonable numbers of Blue-Chip players, but their runs will not be consistent as learned in our experiences in Eugene.
The final group of ten teams has a very low probability of attaining the highest levels in college football because of the severe disadvantages they have to line up with. Again we are referring to the majority of situations, not the exceptions. Coach Curt Cignetti and Jonathan Smith are exceptions who can build high-caliber teams from lower-level recruiting, but the chances of winning a ‘Natty for them with these improved teams is still quite low. (I believe that what Coach Smith did at Oregon State was amazing, and is poised to do it again at Michigan State)
Nick Saban stated recently, and it has been echoed by Kirby Smart and Dan Lanning how the difference with those teams who win the ‘Natty resides in the trenches. It is not a coincidence that Oregon has a reasonable chance to win its first ‘Natty because of the best overall talent and depth in the offensive and defensive lines ever assembled in Eugene. Building these elite trenches is easy to say, but difficult to achieve. Hence it makes sense when the teams with a high Blue-Chip ratio consistently do well, and it is not a surprise to see Ohio State or Georgia routinely discussed in annual ‘Natty conversations.
No. 76 Josh Conerly Jr. is a big reason for Oregon’s offensive success. (Photo by Zach Bolinger)
In the past, I dismissed such contentions because an athletic 3-Star with a high upside who actually develops can become as good as a Blue-Chip 4 or 5-Star-right? Yet I now believe that our shortage of Blue-Chippers along the LOS made our road much more difficult. How many of the 3-Stars develop that far, and what is their percentage of success? It is obviously easier to start with a Penei Sewell or Josh Conerly Jr. as their upside is higher, and their percentage of success is also significantly better.
What are your thoughts about the 2025 Recruiting Class you see above? Let me know in the only free, civilized Oregon football Message Board, the Our Beloved Ducks forum because…
“Oh, how we love to ponder about Our Beloved Ducks!”
Charles Fischer (Mr. FishDuck)
Eugene, Oregon
Screenshot from Peacock Sports Video
Charles Fischer has been an intense fan of the Ducks, a season ticket holder at Autzen Stadium for 38 years and has written reports on football boards for over 26 years. Known as “FishDuck” on those boards, he is acknowledged for providing intense detail in his scrimmage reports, and in his Xs and Os play analyses. He is single, has a daughter Christine, and resides in Eugene Oregon where he was a Financial Advisor for 36 years.
He now focuses full-time on Charitable Planned Giving Workshops for churches and non-profit organizations in addition to managing his two Oregon Football Websites, of FishDuck.com and the Our Beloved Ducks forum. He is a busy man!
He does not profess to be a coach or analyst, but simply a “hack” that enjoys sharing what he has learned and invites others to correct or add to this body of Oregon Football! See More…