Breaking Down Oregon’s Potential Quarterfinal Matchups Against Vols, Buckeyes

The No. 1 Oregon Ducks, fresh off a historic 13-0 regular season and Big Ten championship, sit perched atop the College Football Playoff rankings, waiting to defend their claim to college football’s throne. The Ducks’ New Year’s Day showdown in the Rose Bowl will pit them against the winner of the playoff opener between Ohio State and Tennessee, two very different predators hunting for an upset.

So, who poses the bigger threat to Oregon’s championship aspirations? Will it be Ohio State’s revenge-driven Buckeyes, armed with the nation’s best defense? Or the Tennessee’s Volunteers, storming in with an SEC pedigree and a bruising run game? Let’s break it down.

Ohio State: The Revenge-Seeking Juggernaut

Oregon already knows how sharp the Buckeyes’ fangs can be after winning a 32-31 thriller earlier this season at Autzen Stadium. Since then, however, Ohio State’s $20 million roster has barely scraped past a middling Nebraska (6-6, 3-6 Big Ten) squad and lost to Michigan (7-5, 5-4 Big Ten) in a spectacular meltdown at the Horseshoe.

Buckeyes quarterback Will Howard runs for his life against the Ducks earlier this season in Eugene. Photo by Eric Becker

The regular season wasn’t kind to the Bucks, who will compete in the inaugural 12-team playoff without key starters on the offensive line, including left tackle Josh Simmons, Zen Michalski (Simmons’ replacement) and center Seth McLaughlin. Yet, despite the rumblings and chatter among some angry Ohio faithful, the Buckeyes remain a very talented, explosive and dangerous team with eyes for winning it all.

Buckeyes’ Strengths

Ohio State boasts the best defense in the nation by nearly every metric:

• Points Allowed Per Game: 10.9 (1st nationally)
• Total Yards Allowed Per Game: 241.1 (1st nationally)
• Passing Yards Allowed Per Game: 144.3 (2nd nationally)
• Red Zone Defense: Opponents score on only 55.2% of trips (2nd nationally).

Anchored by a ferocious front seven, the Buckeyes are relentless at the line of scrimmage, ranking fifth nationally in pressure rate (43.4%) and second in sack rate (10%), making life miserable for opposing quarterbacks. That said, Oregon’s offensive line, led by Ajani Cornelius, Nishad Strother, Iapani Laloulu, Marcus Harper and Josh Conerly Jr., held up quite well in their first outing against the Bucks, not allowing a sack and giving quarterback Dillon Gabriel plenty of room to skewer the Bucks’ secondary for over 340 yards passing. We should also mention the Ducks’ offensive line group is one of three finalists for the Joe Moore Award, a trophy given to the best offensive line in the nation.

Oregon’s offensive line has provided a fortress for Heisman finalist quarterback Dillon Gabriel all season. Photo by Eric Becker

Offensively, Ohio State is no slouch. Freshman wide receiver Jeremiah Smith has lived up to his billing as the No. 1 recruit in the country, tallying 57 receptions for 934 yards and 10 touchdowns. Quarterback Will Howard has shown flashes of brilliance, throwing for 2,860 yards, 27 touchdowns, and eight interceptions.

But Howard remains inconsistent and struggles as a game manager, most notably flubbing a potential game-winning drive to fall in Eugene. The Buckeyes’ Achilles heel is their offensive line, which, coupled with Howard’s occasional shaky performances, could be a real dealbreaker for a national title run.

X-Factor: Motivation

Ohio State enters the playoffs licking wounds from their fourth straight loss to Michigan, a 13-10 rock fight that sent shockwaves through Columbus. Despite Ohio State athletic director Ross Bjork stating that he is “absolutely” confident Buckeyes head coach Ryan Day will return as football coach in 2025, the talented but embattled football coach knows his reputation rides on at least some measure of postseason success, and a chance to avenge the loss to Oregon could be the ultimate motivator.

Tennessee: The Wildcard Vols

While Ohio State is a relatively familiar foe, Tennessee presents an entirely different challenge. The Vols bring SEC swagger and physicality, built on a foundation of smashmouth football and an opportunistic defense. Under head coach Josh Heupel, Tennessee has clawed its way back to national relevance with a 10-2 season, highlighted by a gutsy win over Alabama and a dominant rushing attack.

Volunteers’ Strengths

• Run Game: Tennessee’s rushing attack, led by SEC rushing leader Dylan Sampson (1,485 yards, 22 touchdowns), is brutal and efficient. Sampson, recently named SEC Offensive Player of the Year, is a force to be reckoned with and leads the conference in 11 different categories, including 123.8 rushing yards per game and 22 rushing touchdowns — tied for the fifth-most rushing scores in SEC single-season history.
• Run Defense: The Vols have one best rushing defenses in the country, ranking fourth nationally in yards allowed per carry (2.83) and feature a front seven with a 26.2% stuff rate — the consistency at which defenders tackle an opposing player at or behind the line of scrimmage — good for 4th nationally. Tennessee’s vaunted defense is tied for third in the FBS in points per game allowed at just 13.9, which presents a fascinating chess match against Oregon’s balanced offense, which averages 449.8 yards per game.

The No. 1 Oregon Ducks are looking to bring home the program’s first national championship. Photo by Steven Chan

Tennessee’s offense is methodical but lacks explosiveness, ranking 115th in yards per successful play. Quarterback Nico Iamaleava has been steady but unspectacular in the regular season, averaging a 65% completion rate and throwing for 2,512 yards, 19 touchdowns, and five interceptions. Wide receiver Dont’e Thornton Jr. provides a deep threat, averaging 30.4 yards per reception, but the Vols rely more on sustained drives, largely on the back of Sampson, than big plays.

X-Factor: Physicality

The Vols’ trench dominance on both sides of the ball sets them apart. The Tennessee defensive front will likely pose a stiff challenge for Oregon running back duo Jordan James and Noah Whittington.

How Oregon Matches Up

Offense vs. Defense

Oregon’s offense, led by Heisman finalist Dillon Gabriel, ranks among the nation’s best:

• Points Per Game: 37.9
• Passing Yards Per Game: 278
• Rushing Yards Per Game: 171.8

Gabriel, Big Ten Offensive Player of the Year, was a finalist in New York for a reason, throwing for 3,558 yards, 28 touchdowns and six interceptions, all with the nation’s top completion percentage at 73.2%. The veteran signal caller is calm, collected and has found ways to win difficult spots. The Ducks having the country’s most experienced, accurate and intelligent quarterback can’t be overstated.

Oregon’s Tez Johnson, one of the most explosive and exciting wide receivers in the country, will headline the Ducks’ offense in the postseason. Photo by Steven Chan

Tez Johnson, Oregon’s electrifying wideout, is the ultimate matchup nightmare. Johnson’s record-breaking Big Ten Championship performance (11 receptions, 181 yards, 1 TD) showcased his ability to shred even elite defenses. Against Ohio State’s lockdown secondary, Johnson’s speed and route-running, coupled with threats from Evan Stewart, Traeshon Holden, and Terrance Ferguson, will once again test Buckeyes’ top-rated cornerback Denzel Burke, who got cooked by the Ducks in October, allowing eight receptions for 179 yards and two touchdowns.

Tennessee’s more vulnerable secondary could face nightmares trying to contain Johnson and Stewart, who form one of the nation’s most dynamic receiving duos.

Defense vs. Offense

Oregon’s defense, while not as statistically dominant as Ohio State’s or Tennessee’s, has been opportunistic. Nikko Reed and Jabbar Muhammad anchor a secondary capable of creating turnovers, while edge rusher Jordan Burch has been a force, tallying 8.5 sacks this season despite missing several games due to injury.

Against Ohio State, the Ducks will need to limit Howard’s deep-ball opportunities. Tennessee’s run-heavy attack will require Oregon’s front seven, led by Jordan Burch, Jamaree Caldwell, Matayo Uiagalelei, Derrick Harmon, Bryce Boettcher and Jeffrey Bassa to stack the box and force Iamaleava into uncomfortable passing situations.

The Verdict: Ohio State vs. Tennessee

The Case for Ohio State

Facing Ohio State would give Oregon a chance to solidify its dominance and eliminate a familiar foe. However, the Buckeyes’ elite defense and revenge-driven mindset make them a more dangerous opponent. Beating the same team twice in one season is no easy task, and the Buckeyes’ ability to pressure Gabriel could disrupt Oregon’s offensive rhythm.

Defensive lineman Matayo Uiagalelei is an integral part of Oregon’s aggressive defensive front seven. Photo by Isaac Wasserman

The Case for Tennessee

Tennessee’s methodical offense and struggles with explosiveness make them a more favorable matchup for Oregon. The Ducks’ defense can focus on stacking the box to contain Sampson, forcing Tennessee to rely on its inconsistent passing game. Additionally, Oregon’s speed on offense could expose Tennessee’s secondary, creating mismatches that play to the Ducks’ strengths. However, as the only saying goes, “Better the devil you know than the devil you don’t,” and while Ohio State has much more talent and weaponry on offense, Oregon hasn’t played a stout SEC defensive front.

Conclusion

While both teams present unique challenges, Tennessee poses the more favorable matchup for Oregon. The Vols’ one-dimensional offense and struggles with big plays play into the Ducks’ hands, while Ohio State’s elite defense and hunger for revenge make them a more dangerous obstacle. Regardless of the opponent, Oregon’s path to a national championship begins with another electrifying performance in Pasadena.

Jordan Ingram

Jordan is a lifelong Duck fan currently living in San Diego. Jordan graduated from The Evergreen State College in Olympia, Washington, after serving a prestigious fellowship with the Washington State House of Representatives.  Upon graduation, he worked as an English language teaching assistant for the Spanish Ministry of Education’s Ambassadorial Program in Monforte de Lemos, Spain.  Jordan has worked as a journalist, writer, and editor in Oregon, Washington, Montana, and California, covering a wide range of topics, including sports, local politics, and crime. He is VERY excited to be writing about his beloved Oregon Ducks.