The changes in college football has left us behind what the coaches are thinking and doing, and often as fans we are catching up to the new ways of thinking in the Portal/NIL era. It has been gradual, but over the last two seasons my opinion about quarterback recruiting and roster management has changed due to what the Ducks have achieved in the portal at quarterback. It is the old development-versus-established-transfer discussion, but now I believe the scales have shifted for Oregon in terms of their QB recruiting strategy. Let’s see if you agree…
It is an obvious observation to say that the quarterback has a massively disproportionate impact on the fortunes of a football team, but recent history has highlighted this massive difference an experienced quarterback can make. Oregon faced a number of big plays this season on fourth down, where Dillion Gabriel made an amazing throw that had to thread the needle, and be thrown at the precise instant.
As good as our backup QBs are…could they have made that throw? Yes, but only after tons of game experience, and losing games in the process. There is no replacement for actual game-speed reps under fire and stress, and recruiting experienced portal QBs assures you the best chance of making those big plays at the key times. I do not think it is an exaggeration to say that with Austin Novosad or Dante Moore–that Oregon would not have gone 13-0 thus far. Perhaps 10-2 and no B1G Conference Championship game, but a chance still to make the Playoffs.
Without Dillon Gabriel…would we have a realistic shot at a ‘Natty?
They Bring MORE Than Just the Quarterbacking…
But there is more to the portal transfer story; Gabriel committed to Oregon early in the process, which attracted Evan Stewart to join us through the portal, and a host of defensive players who could see what the Ducks were building for the 2024 season. Recall that Derrick Harmon was in the portal, rejoined Michigan State for Spring Football, and then went back into the portal and transferred to the Ducks. He could see the championship team assembled, and he is now the national leader for QB hurries as a defensive tackle.
Winners attract winners.
Elite players like Derrick Harmon No. 55, want to join a winner. (Photo by Eric Becker)
All schools cannot have this discussion, because each year there are only a half-dozen or less quarterbacks available in the portal that are supremely talented and uber-experienced. Only the top teams can get the best names out there, and I would suggest that Oregon is now one of those teams that can attract the very best QBs from the portal. A great QB can turn an above-average team into a top-5 team, especially in Eugene.
So shouldn’t Oregon get the best portal quarterback every year?
The program that Dan Lanning is building with a stunning Blue-Chip ratio now present, won’t Oregon be a ‘Natty contender every year if the Ducks secure a talented, experienced portal quarterback? Of course, and between the plays these transfers make, and the recruiting they do to finish the roster for a championship run…it is evident to me now that Oregon should get the very best in the portal at QB every year. The positives from this strategy are compelling, as these are the decisions that ‘Nattys are created from.
Yes, I am influenced by both Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel, but in my 38 years as a season ticket holder–I’ve watched plenty of other transfer quarterback rescue Our Beloved Ducks. Recall how Akili Smith Jr. was a JC transfer and became a high NFL Draft pick. Jerimiah Masoli got things going for Chip Kelly, and Vernon Adams helped Oregon to continue to prosper when high school recruiting at QB generated some busts. So whether it is JC transfers, Graduate transfers, or now the Portal transfers–Oregon has a history of great transfer QBs coming to Autzen to hear the roar of touchdowns.
Vernon Adams Jr. had a miracle finish against Arizona State, that only a veteran can pull off. (Photo by John Sperry)
There IS a Downside to This Strategy
If you go to the portal every year for a quarterback…how will you attract high school QBs to be backups with no hope of starting? What does OC Will Stein say to the mother of a high school quarterback when she asks how her son can progress at Oregon when he will rarely play?
Whew!
This is where many fans would shout that you have to develop quarterbacks, give them their turn and take your licks. But if you ask most fans…“do you want 9-3 with an inexperienced quarterback or 11-1 and a Conference Championship with an experienced portal QB?” What will they say? “Get the damn transfer.”
Easy for me to write, but incredibly difficult and complicated for the Oregon coaches to actually implement in real-life. No high school quarterbacks will want to come here unless you pay them a Boatload of NIL, and give them some playing-time crumbs so they can later transfer out and get their chance elsewhere.
But is that accurate? Aren’t there are too many seasons where the Ducks has had an injured quarterback? (Flashbacks of Dennis Dixon be GONE!) In fact haven’t the injury-free 2023 and 2024 (thus far, knock-on-wood) seasons been aberrations when looking at the long term? Even being hurt temporarily has derailed potential championship seasons in 2015 with Vernon Adams, and in 2022 with Bo Nix. It is quite possible for a back-up QB to take over for an injured QB for the rest of the season, and be the heir-apparent going into the next season.
Bo Nix set the new standard for the success a portal transfer QB can have at Oregon. (Screenshot from Fox Sports Video)
There is no clear answer; go with developing QBs and lose games that a veteran would not. Go with experienced portal transfer quarterbacks, and suffer with a short, less talented bench of reserve QBs. This is a brutal scenario for the coaches, and not one I would want to figure out and finesse through with all the personalities involved.
Will Oregon go with Dante Moore and Austin Novosad and eschew the portal? Would that show that the coaches believe that those two have more upside than current portal QBs options out there? Is Oregon destined to lose games in 2025 with an inexperienced QB? How many current QBs would leave if Oregon brings a portal quarterback in for 2025?
Let me know where you settle on this recruiting dilemma in the only free, civilized, fun Oregon Football Message board out there, the Our Beloved Ducks forum because…
“Oh, how we love to ponder about Our Beloved Ducks!”
Charles Fischer (Mr. FishDuck)
Eugene, Oregon
Top Photo by Eric Becker
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Charles Fischer has been an intense fan of the Ducks, a season ticket holder at Autzen Stadium for 38 years and has written reports on football boards for over 26 years. Known as “FishDuck” on those boards, he is acknowledged for providing intense detail in his scrimmage reports, and in his Xs and Os play analyses. He is single, has a daughter Christine, and resides in Eugene Oregon where he was a Financial Advisor for 36 years.
He now focuses full-time on Charitable Planned Giving Workshops for churches and non-profit organizations in addition to managing his two Oregon Football Websites, of FishDuck.com and the Our Beloved Ducks forum. He is a busy man!
He does not profess to be a coach or analyst, but simply a “hack” that enjoys sharing what he has learned and invites others to correct or add to this body of Oregon Football! See More…