Once bitten? Twice Stupid. My 2024 Dark Horse Conference picks didn’t get out of the gate, let alone finish in the money. Our own Mr. FishDuck took a break from his fun at GameZone Tablegame Champions Cup to give me solace about my picks for last year. He assured me about the difficulty, but let’s look at my 2024 Dark Horse Conference picks to see if they were really that bad?
ACC – Virginia Tech – 6-7, 4-4 in conference. Bowl loss to 7-6 Rutgers.
B12 – Kansas – 5-7, 4-5 in conference.
B1G – USC – 7-6, 4-5 in conference, 2-0 vs. the SEC. Five one-score losses = Choke, not Clutch.
SEC – LSU – 9-4, 5-3 in conference. Bowl win over Baylor.
For a ‘Midnight with No Moonlight Dark Horse’ composite record of 27 and 22. I should have listened to Mr. Ed.
With the above, ‘Don’t Lose Your Hard Earned Money’ caveat in mind, here are my 2025 conference Top Dog and Dark Horse picks. Following my Dark Horse Donut Hole $ Rules, you can’t be a Dark Horse if ranked in your conference’s preseason top three.
ACC Champion – No. 7 Clemson to repeat as conference champion in 2025.
Clemson returns 81% of its 2024 production, No. 1 in the nation, including QB Cade Klubnick. In the Peach Bowl vs. Texas, Klubnick went 26-43 for 3 TDS and 1 interception. New DC Tom Allen left Penn State to return the Tigers D to the level of Dabo’s champion teams. Clemson can lose its opener against LSU and its final game to South Carolina and still win the ACC.
ACC Dark Horse – No. 27 Georgia Tech – Picked to finish fifth in the ACC.
You can defeat a Brent Pry-coached team but not without being punched in the mouth. Last season, the Yellow Jackets made Georgia work eight OTs ‘Tween to get the win.24-year-old tough guy QB Hayes King is back for the Ramblin’ Wreck in 2025. He’s a Hell of an Engineer!
Dilly has built ASU into a permanent Big-12 fixture. (Photo Sun Devil Football and ASU Athletics)
BIG 12 – Champion – No. 13 Arizona State. Close call between Dilly’s Sun Devils, and the No. 16 BYU Cougars. Close in preseason B12 strength-of-schedule rankings with ASU 8th and BYU 9th out of 16 teams, but I like QB Sam Leavitt more than BYU starter Jake Retzlaff.
Returning WR Jordyn, who unfortunately missed the Peach Bowl game vs. Texas with an injury, was rated the 4th best wideout in the nation last season by Pro Football Focus.
ASU was ‘this close’ to taking down Texas in the Peach Bowl behind Leavitt and RB Cam Skattebo, Skattebo is off to the NFL. However, the Sun Devils are first in the B12 and second in the nation in returning production from 2024.
BIG 12 Dark Horse – No. 32 Baylor – Predicted to finish (GULP) 9th in the B12
Behind QB Sawyer Robinson, the Bears won the last six regular season games in a row to become bowl-eligible. Baylor lost a bowl game shootout against LSU but Sawyer who is back in 2025, put up 445 passing yards with one TD and one INT. against the Bayou Bengals.
The Bears return 72% of 2024’s returning production and play the second-easiest conference schedule with Arizona State, Kansas State, and Utah traveling to Waco. With its opener at home vs. Auburn and a Week 2 game at SMU, Baylor should be ready for B12 competition. Baylor’s game at TCU should be its most difficult conference road game.
The ‘Vols are back in the SEC, and challenging. (Photo by Andrew Ferguson, Courtesy of Tennessee Athletics)
SEC – Champion – No. 4 Georgia. The SEC defending champion Dawgs again faces a daunting schedule in 2025. The same conference gauntlet as 2024, but the table has turned and No. 1 Texas, No. 9 Alabama, and 20 Ole Miss will not be hosting but playing Georgia in Athens where Kirby Smart does not lose football games.
SEC Dark Horse? Forgive The Delay – But with 12 SEC teams ranked in the top 34, finding, let alone choosing a dark Horse is not easy. I’m not going with No. 34 Oklahoma and the 4th highest-ranked SEC team, No. 9 Alabama with a Deep Dark Blue Blue Chip Roster; well, I can’t put Bama and Dark Horse in the same sentence. So…
SEC Dark Horse-No. 10 Tennessee – Predicted to Finish 5th in the SEC -The Vols have the 4th easiest schedule in the SEC and have a (modest) chance to beat UGA in Knoxville. And By Josh, with Nico nicked from the roster, I am as of now a Josh Heupel, Smokey, Payton Manning, and Vols fan. Decent QB play could again have Tennessee finishing 10-2 and back in the playoff.
SEC Extra Credit – Out of 12 preseason-ranked teams, with the same conference schedule, will nine of the twelve have three or more losses? My guess is ‘NO.’ I see four SEC teams in the 2025 Playoff Field.
Noah Whittington puts a kick into Special Teams for Oregon. (Photo by Craig Strobeck)
B1G – The Big 10 – Champion – OREGON–I’m not a Simpson, but I am a Homer. I’m optimistic that Moore, after a season of QB Grad School, will not be a B1G drop-off from Bo and Gabe. The team will be a favorite in its first four games, and will jell and return to Indy to play Ohio State in the B1G Champ game. I see OBD finishing no worse than 10-2 and returning to the CFB Playoff.
Dark Horse – No. 19 Michigan – Predicted to Finish 5th in the B1G, while the easy call here instead is No. 14 Illinois. However, Michigan opened the wallet wide for 2024 No. 1 recruit QB Bryce Underwood who I believe will be ready to compete in the B1G as a true freshman. Michigan plays at Oklahoma in Week 2 but has an easy peasy 2025 conference schedule, no Oregon, no Penn State, no Illinois, and Ohio State in Ann Arbor. Games at Nebraska and USC could be tricky.
Bama showed up to its bowl game versus Michigan last season with all hands, including QB Jalen Milroe, on deck. A bunch of unknown Wolverines took down The Tide. Those unknowns are ready to play ball in 2025.
In 2025, I’m hoping my Top Dogs Bark, and my Nags at least make it to the final turn. Who are your champions and dark horses? Share them in the only free, civilized Oregon Message Board out there, the Our Beloved Ducks forum!
Is it August 30th yet?
Jon Joseph
Aiken, South Carolina
Top Photo by Andrew Ferguson, Courtesy of Tennessee Athletics
This article uses The Sporting News 2025 Preseason Composite Football Rankings 1-37. The rankings are a composite of The Sporting News, Action Network, Athlon, The Athletic, Bleacher Report, CBS Sports, ESPN, Sports Illustrated, USA Today, Yahoo Sports, and On3 rankings. Teams ranked 26-34 received three or more Top 25 votes from the composite sites.
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Jon Joseph grew up in Boston, Massachusetts but has been blessed to have lived long enough in the west to have exorcised all east coast bias. He played football in college and has passionately followed the game for seven decades. A retired corporate attorney Jon has lectured across the country and published numerous articles on banking and gaming law. Now a resident of Aiken South Carolina, Jon follows college football across the nation with a focus on the Conference of Champions and the Ducks.