B1G Playoff Contender Schedules vs. Actual Odds?

Two interesting questions: does a top CFB Playoff contender’s schedule match it’s gaming odds to make the new 12 team Playoff field? Who are the best bets to make the Playoff when comparing odds to their schedules, according to FanDuel? Cool questions, and let’s apply them to the Big-10 conference for fun! Of course our own Mr. FishDuck took a break from his favorite online casino to check my analysis carefully with this particular topic…

The 2024 preseason AP Poll performed well at the top, as No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Oregon, and No. 4 Texas all made the playoff field. However, No. 5 Alabama, No. 6 Ole Miss, No. 9 Michigan, and No. 10 Florida State all had three or more losses, yet there were no repercussions for the AP voters who whiffed on their preseason votes.

Those who do have skin in the game? The gaming sites, as their future odds for teams to make the 12 team CFB Playoff has real money at risk. Sure, the odds are set up to “balance-their-book,” but these gaming odds set in preseason match the final CFB Playoff committee’s poll in December much closer than the supposed pundits predict.

(A gaming refresher. A plus number is what a $100 bet returns in profit if your bet wins. +110 returns $110 on a $100 bet and the original bet. A minus number, -110, means you need to bet $110 to win $100 plus the return of the amount bet.)

We will look at Bill Connolly’s SP+ strength-of-schedule (SOS) rankings to assist my analysis, and these rankings do include the out-of-conference (OOC) games as well. It is important to look at the SOS, but the real question is…“will the Playoff Committee take SOS into account?” They put Boise State, with a SOS in the 80s at No. 9 ahead of Big-12 Champ Arizona State–who played a much tougher schedule?

Can the Playoff committee really justify the “Eye Test” when not a single metric justified putting the Broncos ahead of the Sun Devils? If the Playoff committee ignores SOS this year…then then a more difficult schedule is not rewarded, only the number of wins. How fair is that? (We will be watching closely this year!)

Michigan ran through USC’s defensive front on their way to victory in 2024. Neither can afford a third loss in 2025! (Screenshot from ESPN Video)

Back to our topic; let’s take a look at the B1G’s top five teams’ odds to make the Playoff, and the odds are followed by a team’s SOS.

Big-10 Conference:

1. Ohio State -325 – 21
2. OREGON -265 – 32
3. Penn State -230 – 29
4. Michigan +194 – 38
5. USC +590 – 20
T6. Illinois +630 – 40 / T6. Indiana +630 – 31.

Note, to the top 5, I have added Illinois and Indiana. Illinois has 18 starters back from a team that won ten games last season, including a win over regular-season 3-loss South Carolina in a bowl game played in Dixie. Illinois misses Penn State and Oregon, and plays USC and Ohio State in Champaign, Illinois. Road games at Duke, Indiana, Washington, and Wisconsin will not be easy victories. However, at +630 with an SOS of 40, Illinois is one of the best future bets on the board.

Michigan has the second-easiest SOS in the Big Ten. Michigan misses Illinois, Oregon, Penn State, and Indiana, draws bottom feeders Purdue, Northwestern, and Maryland, and plays Ohio State in Ann Arbor. Michigan’s SOS is propped up by an OOC game at Oklahoma.

Michigan appears to be a worthwhile bet, but I do not recommend a wager of any kind on Michigan before knowing what the Wolverines’ NCAA sanctions will be. What will the motivation be for a Michigan team without a chance for a conference title and/or a PO spot? If eligible, Michigan’s game at USC could decide a PO spot for both teams.

USC misses Ohio State and Penn State and draws Michigan in LA, but road games at Illinois, Notre Dame, and Oregon could be three losses and out for the Trojans.

Illinois surprised their fans and foes in 2024. (Screenshot from Fox Sports Video)

Oregon, with the 32nd SOS, is tempting, but $265 is a B1G premium to pay.

Looking at the ‘odds-maker rankings,’ the schedules, and the rosters, Ohio State, Oregon, and Penn State should return to the PO along with a fourth B1G team. How do you feel about these probabilities, and who do think will be the fourth B1G team to make the Playoff?

DO NOT BET IF YOU ARE UNCOMFORTABLE DOING SO! You can have fun wagering Monopoly money.

Jon Joseph
Aiken, South Carolina
Top Photo by Eric Becker

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Jon Joseph

Jon Joseph grew up in Boston, Massachusetts but has been blessed to have lived long enough in the west to have exorcised all east coast bias. He played football in college and has passionately followed the game for seven decades. A retired corporate attorney Jon has lectured across the country and published numerous articles on banking and gaming law. Now a resident of Aiken South Carolina, Jon follows college football across the nation with a focus on the Conference of Champions and the Ducks.