Do NEW Metrics Support the FanDuel Odds for CFB ’25 Champ?

Previously, we looked at FanDuel’s odds for teams to make the 2025-26 College Football (CFB) Playoffs (PO) and whether a team’s strength of schedule (SOS) matched the odds. Several teams favored to make the Playoff had minus odds. For instance, Clemson at -128 means you would have to wager $128 to win $100 plus the return of your bet.

All odds to win the Playoff are plus odds. For instance, Oregon is +900 to win it all, bet $100, and the Ducks win the title, and you win $900 plus your $100 back. Using the championship odds, what 12 teams would be in the FanDuel Playoff field? And do the metrics support a wager on any team?

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Metrics used for this purpose are a team’s SOS (strength of schedule) calculated by SP+, whether a team has a Blue Chip Roster (BCR), a team’s returning production (RP), and whether a team returns the most vital player for success, its starting quarterback. (QB.)

Since the inception of the BCS, 1998, no team has won a CFB championship without a BCR, at least 50% of a team’s roster being made up of four-star and five-star recruits. A difficult SOS does not mean you cannot win a title, with the variance in mega-conference schedules, having an easier path to the PO helps a team qualify for the PO.

Georgia plays the same conference schedule in 2025 that it played last season, but the games versus Alabama, Ole Miss, and Texas will be played in Athens, Georgia, and not on the road. In 2024, Oregon played both Ohio State and Michigan; neither team is on the Ducks’ 2025 schedule.

Makhi Hughes is not counted as a returning player at Oregon, but was quite the starter at Tulane. (Photo Courtesy of Tulane Athletics)

Returning production is the number of returning players who started at least six games for a Power 4 team in 2024, as calculated by CBS Sports. In the last eight seasons, no team that returned fewer than 11 players won a championship. The odds are better to break this streak than the BCR streak, especially with a team having to win 16 or 17 games to win a championship.

Whether a team’s starting QB returns speaks for itself. Carson Beck at Miami and Nico Iamaleava at UCLA have many starts at QB, Dante Moore started five games at UCLA, but they don’t have starts with their current team. As we witnessed with Bo Nix and Dillon Gabriel, transfer QBs can elevate a team’s play and contend for a Heisman Trophy.

Below are the 12 teams’ odds to win a title and how a team measures up metrics-wise:

(SOS=Strength of Schedule, BCR=Blue Chip Ratio over 50%, RP=Number of Returning Players, QB Back?

ASU, with the 22nd-best odds, knocks out +3700 Texas A&M. Boise State, with the 39th-best odds, knocks out +3800 Michigan.

Four teams check all of the boxes: Penn State, Clemson, LSU, and ASU. (LSU has the most difficult schedule of the four)

With the 29th SOS and +800, Penn State makes wagering sense. However, none of the above statistics reflects a head coach’s record against quality opponents. I’ll pass on James Franklin.

I like Oregon’s chances with veterans like Teitum Tuioti returning. (Photo by Craig Strobeck)

I have no idea why Ole Miss at+2800, and not Indiana or Illinois, to have the 10th-best odds. If you can find a place to short Ole Miss, do so. The Rebels will go 4-0 versus a cupcake out-of-conference schedule, but will lose at Georgia, versus LSU, and at least one SEC game that Lane Kiffin and company shouldn’t lose.

Based on the quality of the opposition, or rather, the lack thereof, ASU and Boise State are in the field for political purposes. These two knocking out an SEC and a B1G team are why the Playoff will expand to 14 or 16 teams in 2026.

With Oregon’s schedule and a 1st round game versus Boise State in Autzen, I like the Ducks at +900. I definitely would bet on one of this group of 12 to win it all against a field of the other 124 contenders.

Not long before the season kicks off with terrific openers that see Texas at Ohio State, (whew!) LSU at Clemson, and Notre Dame at Miami. And the underrated match-up of Our Beloved Ducks versus Bob’s Cats.

Jon Joseph
Aiken, South Carolina
Top Photo by Steven Chan

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Jon Joseph

Jon Joseph grew up in Boston, Massachusetts but has been blessed to have lived long enough in the west to have exorcised all east coast bias. He played football in college and has passionately followed the game for seven decades. A retired corporate attorney Jon has lectured across the country and published numerous articles on banking and gaming law. Now a resident of Aiken South Carolina, Jon follows college football across the nation with a focus on the Conference of Champions and the Ducks.