Could Oregon Miss the College Football Playoff?

Our Oregon football program entered 2025 in a season we expected to be a rebuilding year. That turned quickly into a reload, and lofty expectations were set after an all-time poised performance by Dante Moore on the road in Happy Valley. Unfortunately, Penn State decidedly did not hold up their end of the bargain the rest of the season, and have massively diminished a quality win on Oregon’s record.

Now, I think it’s a long shot the Ducks would miss out on the Playoff, especially if they win out. Their strength of schedule to close the season has raised a great deal with two ranked teams sitting there now (Washington and USC), so I expect that alone to be enough. However, it looks like Ohio State and Indiana are both going to make it as top seeds, forcing Oregon out of the B1G Championship game, which creates a tough ask to get the Ducks in as a third (or maybe even fourth) B1G team.

Autobids & SEC bias also don’t help this year. I wish the Ducks could just control their destiny by winning, but in some outlandish scenarios, there’s a world where the Ducks need to do even more.

After a huge win vs Ohio State at home in 2024, it felt like the Ducks were destined for the College Football Playoff. This weekend could have that same impact -Photo via Eric Becker

Leave No Doubt: The Ducks Not Only Have to Win This Weekend, But Win Convincingly

The easiest way to avoid those crazy scenarios is to just win.

Act III of Oregon’s regular season has to be the most explosive yet, and that starts with the Hawkeyes. Iowa played Indiana extremely physically, had a chance to win on the last possession, and held the Hoosiers to far fewer points than the Ducks did. Saturday will be a statement game on the road against Iowa if the Ducks can hang 30+. Oregon’s had plenty of time to regroup and get their helmets on straight after a flat performance against Wisconsin, but unfortunately for us Oregon fans, time off has often shown to be a weakness for us Ducks. They don’t play well after bye weeks under Dan Lanning. That narrative needs to be squashed fast, and Will Stein needs to open up the playbook to leave no doubt in Kinnick Stadium.

I have full confidence that Stein and this staff are capable of that; we just cannot afford not to see it happen this weekend. Screens on long third downs, weak fourth down calls, and conservative pass playcalling will not work against a vaunted Hawkeye defense, and I expect to see a much better offensive showing in this game and beyond. As long as Oregon handles their business here and wins by double digits, I believe the Ducks will solidify their College Football Playoff slot this weekend.

If they win a closer matchup that comes down to the wire, I think they’re going to have to make some massive strides in the next three games to be CFP-ready. Washington, USC, and Minnesota are not easy outs. We as Duck fans are counting on all three opponents to win the rest of their games, improve rankings, and elevate Oregon’s College Football Playoff resume.

Let’s not get ahead of ourselves, though. One week at a time. In my eyes, Saturday has a sneaky feeling of being the biggest game of the season yet. Iowa may be unranked in the AP Poll, but they are 20th in the CFP rankings. They also just beat the brakes off of Minnesota, who are having a great season this year. The merit of the Hawkeyes’ defense and physicality as a program garners a ton of respect in the college football world, and the voters take those attributes into account when choosing who’s in at the end of the year.

Lanning’s squad has to match that from the first snap to the final whistle. I cannot wait to see what he’s got in store for us.

Anyway, enough from me, Oregon fans. What are you expecting to see out of Oregon this weekend? What would a tight victory mean for Oregon against Iowa? If the Ducks win out, do you think they’ll make the College Football Playoff no matter what, or will they need some help? Let us know your thoughts in the FishDuck Forum with decorum.

GO DUCKS!

Alex Heining
Los Angeles, California
Top Photo by: Tom Corno

Alex Heining

Alex Heining is an Oregon alumni from the graduate class of 2021. After studying sports business and media studies, he has moved into the field of digital marketing as a copywriter and content manager in the Los Angeles area. Still, he loves his Ducks and goes to local high school games all over the Los Angeles and Orange County area to check out new recruits of the future (and a SoFi game or two with the pros). On any given Saturday, expect to find him doing martial arts, playing the guitar, or screaming at the tv over a missed holding penalty.