Seems like a trick question, right? Well, it’s not as simple in 2025. Winning the conference for the second straight season and earning a top seed in the College Football Playoff just doesn’t mean what it used to mean in years past.
Overall, our Oregon football program has had a gritty yet successful reloading season through nine games. Close wins on the road, injury adversity, and tons of freshmen being forced to step up. The Ducks have really answered the bell at almost every call, and I love what I’ve seen from the team so far. Now, do they need to win the B1G to go deep in the playoffs? Would that even help them?
Personally, I don’t want them to have the top seed in the College Football Playoff, and that’s exactly where they’d end up if they made the B1G Championship and then beat Indiana or Ohio State.
The Ducks closed out a massive win at Iowa this weekend. Now, they look ahead to many different routes to the College Football Playoff – Photo Via Brad Repplinger
Of course, this would all hinge on seeing either Ohio State or Indiana lose a conference game in the regular season. That still isn’t a guarantee the Ducks would make it in their place, considering their remaining games. Indiana’s schedule closes out with very winnable matchups, while Ohio State only really has to worry about losing that game for the fifth year in a row.
The funny thing is: I don’t want Indiana or Ohio State to lose a game. Would it maybe guarantee that Oregon makes the playoffs? Sure. That would be great as a fan to be able to solidify Oregon’s spot at the end of the season. However, I love the Ducks’ chances to win the Playoff without a B1G Championship appearance.
My real question is, what is Oregon’s ceiling if the Ducks get healthy?
Dante and the boys have got this. Let’s see them flip the script in the College Football Playoff from 2024’s Ducks – Photo via Brad Repplinger
Oregon’s Road to Their First College Football Playoff Championship Win: No Conference Championship, No Problem
That fifth or sixth spot for Oregon is looking more and more realistic at this point, considering the opponents that could be taking those slots. Georgia is playing Texas this week and still has Georgia Tech to finish the season; one of those games should go sideways for the Bulldogs. Alabama has an outstanding resume of wins, but I like Oklahoma and Auburn’s chances to play spoiler to their top slot in the playoffs. Ole Miss’s lack of compelling wins in November and the ACC’s weak play overall give Oregon an outside shot at a top slot without getting to the conference championship. Miami’s at #15 right now as well, and they’d likely have to get to #10 to be an at-large team. Duke of all teams is still even in the “crowded” ACC playoff race.
Long story short: it’s a crazy year to be a conference winner. All four teams that had bye weeks last season LOST their first game of the playoffs. Until the format changes to offer the top seeds the lowest available seed each round or changes the scheduling timeframe for the Playoff, I think we’ll continue to see most of the teams with extra prep time losing their College Football Playoff opener. It just doesn’t make sense for a team that’s hot to have the opportunity to go cold for weeks at a time and be forced to knock the rust off in the biggest game of the season, and that’s even with a tough road ahead AFTER playing a game like the Rose Bowl.
The B1G Championship (and conference championships overall) I see as trap games for the Playoff. I love the concept of ending the season on January 1st in seasons ahead, but that’s for a later date. For now, let’s win out, miss the B1G Championship, and get hot at the right time. That’s my formula for seeing the Ducks take a majority-led freshman team hoist their first College Football Playoff trophy.
What do you think? Is Oregon’s best route to a College Football Playoff run to miss the B1G Championship? Do you think the Ducks can get healthy and hot at the exact right time this year? Let us know your thoughts in the FishDuck Forum with decorum.
GO DUCKS!
Alex Heining
Los Angeles, California
Top Photo by: Brad Repplinger
Related Articles:
Will The Coaching Carousel Kill Oregon's CFP Chances?
The Playoff Formula Hasn't Changed
Oregon Aims to Bury Dawgs, Punch Playoff Ticket in Rivalry Clash
Huskies Are the New Beavers, Stay In Your Lane Kiffin, and the Civil Apple Cup War
Oregon Football: The X-Factor Vs. Washington
Oregon vs. USC was the Game this Season Needed
Alex Heining is an Oregon alumni from the graduate class of 2021. After studying sports business and media studies, he has moved into the field of digital marketing as a copywriter and content manager in the Los Angeles area. Still, he loves his Ducks and goes to local high school games all over the Los Angeles and Orange County area to check out new recruits of the future (and a SoFi game or two with the pros). On any given Saturday, expect to find him doing martial arts, playing the guitar, or screaming at the tv over a missed holding penalty.