By any spreadsheet, nerd’s algorithm or Fat Joey’s Calzone and Sportsbook, the No. 5 Oregon Ducks‘ College Football Playoff opener looks like a formality dressed up as a national event.
The Ducks open Saturday against No. 12 James Madison at Autzen Stadium as 21-point favorites — a primetime belt-to-buns hardly worth pundits’ coveted analysis. Oregon enters its inaugural home playoff game with an ESPN Football Power Index win probability of 88.2% and a Big Ten résumé that includes an 11-1 record, a top-three FPI ranking in the conference, and a quarterback already being penciled into future NFL mock drafts.
History and remedial math suggest Oregon wins. But the Ducks’ locker room needs to be dialed in for this game, as if this were Ohio State in a rematch of last year’s Rose Bowl apocalypse. Even Mr. FishDuck took a break from his study of Sports Betting to register his concerns with me about Oregon’s Playoff preparation.
James Madison didn’t accidentally wander into the playoffs as a wide-eyed babe, swaddled in sackcloth and lost in the wilderness. The Dukes (12-1) are Sun Belt champions with the nation’s 10th-ranked scoring offense (37.3 points per game) and are piloted by dual-threat quarterback Alonza Barnett III.
Oregon quarterback Dante Moore has guided the Ducks through an 11-1 regular season as they prepare to face James Madison in the College Football Playoff. Photo by Max Unkrich
Barnett is the Sun Belt’s Player of the Year, throwing for 2,533 yards with 21 touchdowns, and rushing for 544 yards and 14 more TDs. (Think Washington quarterback Demond Washington, but more successful and better looking. All Huskies are mouth-breathing clods with faces only their mothers could love.)
All of this matters, even if the betting odds and talking heads insist otherwise. Duck fans should be wary of anyone dismissing this game as some FCS preseason pickup game or as a big brother-little brother in their pre-game analysis. The Dukes (and, like the Huskies, outfitted in purple and gold) are totally capable of making this a game and giving Oregon a run for its money…
ONLY IF the Ducks don’t play their brand and quality of football. ONLY IF the Ducks can’t adapt to their opponent and to the unique circumstances that define every game, just as they have all season. ONLY IF Oregon doesn’t approach this game as a do-or-die game for all the marbles, with everything to lose and an elusive national championship on the line.
Can JMU win? Stranger things have happened. Remember Wisconsin? Everyone had the Ducks blowing them out at home. But the lowly Badgers’ defense was sticky and undervalued (kinda like James Madison). Sprinkle in a pinch of atmospheric river, and the Ducks win, but not by the margin or means everyone expected.
Oregon running back Noah Whittington smashes the face of a Husky defender in the final regular-season game. Photo by Max Unkrich
Overconfidence should make everyone nervous. Less Biff Tannen, more Marty McFly.
Start with the obvious. Oregon’s FPI rating sits at 25.2, nearly triple James Madison’s 9.9. The Ducks rank among the national leaders (third in the Big Ten) in pass defense. The home crowd is a major boon for the Ducks, as Autzen Stadium remains one of the least hospitable environments for visiting teams, particularly those traveling 2,700 miles for a mid-December kickoff.
Oregon quarterback Dante Moore has steadily transformed into what many fans and coaches envisioned, throwing for 2,733 yards and 24 touchdowns in the regular season, showcasing an arm that can fit tight windows like a cruise missile into a coin purse.
If Moore plays clean, Oregon’s offense, loaded with talented running backs, wide receivers and two monster tight ends, should feast like Henry VIII laying waste to a prodigious turkey leg.
Oregon is also deeper, faster and more physically imposing at most positions — the kind of advantages that tend to show up somewhere around the middle of the third quarter. The Ducks’ offensive line, a grim assembly of thick-necked men, has shown they can handle all comers, honking and snorting its way to being named a finalist for the coveted Joe Moore Award. And let’s not forget the nation’s best tight end, Kenyon Sadiq, a problem with no known solution for opposing defenses.
On defense, Bear Alexander and A’Mauri Washington blast through opposing lines like the Kool-Aid Man through an unassuming homeowner’s wall.
And yet, Barnett III reads defensive packages, not betting lines or odds. Running back Wayne Knight adds another complication, rushing for 1,263 yards throughout a season that tested JMU’s depth across the roster. The Dukes’ run-pass option offense is built on stress: zone reads, quarterback movement, and forcing linebackers to make poor life choices.
Oregon tight end Kenyon Sadiq, arguably the nation’s best tight end, will help the Ducks in their postseason run. Photo by Max Unkrich
Defensively, the Dukes tackle well, disguise pressure, and rely on freshman standout DL Sahir West to fiddle with timing up front. Oregon’s offensive line is favored, but certainly not immune.
The most important matchup Saturday, however, is Oregon versus itself.
The Ducks are talented enough to win comfortably. They are also experienced enough to remember how their playoff dreams were dashed a year ago — abruptly, publicly and shamefully. If Oregon plays with discipline, finishes drives and treats every Dukes’ possession as an existential threat, the talent gap should be wide enough by halftime for a bread truck to drive through.
Oregon head coach Dan Lanning’s Ducks are built for this stage and favored for a reason. Moore’s arm, a deep receiver room (Dakorien Moore, Gary Bryant Jr. and Evan Stewart return?) and a defense that limits explosive plays all point toward a controlled victory. But James Madison, disrespected by nearly every national media outlet, aims to ruin assumptions.
Handle business early, avoid self-inflicted silliness, and the Ducks move on. Overlooking JMU and losing would be the equivalent of launching Phil Knight into the sun.
Prediction: Oregon, comfortably, just not casually. Winner advances to play fourth-seeded Texas Tech in a quarterfinal game at the Orange Bowl.
Go. Ducks.
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Jordan is a lifelong Duck fan currently living in San Diego. Jordan graduated from The Evergreen State College in Olympia, Washington, after serving a prestigious fellowship with the Washington State House of Representatives. Upon graduation, he worked as an English language teaching assistant for the Spanish Ministry of Education’s Ambassadorial Program in Monforte de Lemos, Spain. Jordan has worked as a journalist, writer, and editor in Oregon, Washington, Montana, and California, covering a wide range of topics, including sports, local politics, and crime. He is VERY excited to be writing about his beloved Oregon Ducks.