My Dear Duck friends, I have watched enough film this week that I am resting very well these days. Film doesn’t lie. So much so, that I had to watch some games twice to make sure I wasn’t biased in my opinion about Texas Tech. I don’t believe the Red Raiders have the horses to make this a close game. They are very effective as a complete team, but I believe that OBD (Our Beloved Ducks) has some advantages in this game.
I realize that sounds completely ridiculous given Texas Tech has statistically dominated the Big-12 much like Ohio State and Indiana dominated the B1G. Not to mention, even Phil Steele considers the Red Raiders on par with OBD man to man. In fact, Steele believes Tech is stronger at the line-of-scrimmage. Fancy that. And the experts concur to a very large degree.
So why am I convinced their narrative is mistaken?
After all, Steele, whose opinions I highly value, considers Texas Tech’s defensive line far more talented than OBD. Steele states the Red Raiders have the 7th best Defensive Line in the country. OBD hold the 17th best front in comparison. According to many experts, Tech is expected to dramatically slow down OBD on offense. And likewise, the Red Raiders are expected to exploit a weakness our defense has struggled with the past four years: our secondary.
Jaden Canady Interception at Washington. (Screenshot from CBS Sports Video)
However, I am not sure many folks realize this: the overwhelming majority of explosive pass plays against said secondary this year have been the result of WRs pushing off on our corners at the last second to create separation, and thus prevent defended passes. The analysis entity Pro Football Focus, (PFF) has rated Oregon’s secondary as one of the best in the nation, and often ranked it as the best in individual weeks throughout the season.
Here’s something I believe may pan out: despite their lofty ranking, I did not see much separation from the Tech WR group against their fellow conference foes. Look closely at the matchup between their WRs and our secondary. The Red Raider receivers are not going to get open easily, as the Ducks will demonstrate being “sneaky-good.”
I also believe our defensive front-four will display far more physicality than they are known for, and while I cannot prove this–it is my hunch. From what I looked at, Texas Tech cannot impose its will on OBD. I don’t believe Texas Tech is prepared for the battle they will face from our defensive line. In my opinion, the only clear advantage Tech has is running back J ’Koby Williams in space catching the ball against our linebackers, and I expect Tech to exploit that as much as they can.
The Red Raider Defensive Line is has a bigger task than they think. (Photo Courtesy of Red Raider Athletics)
So, what about OBD offense? I believe OBD can be as explosive, or as basic as they want to be, and it is going to shock a lot of people in my opinion. Why? Texas Tech will have trouble covering one side of the field. It doesn’t matter which side, because they have a slow cornerback that will get scorched as much as James Madison’s corners were burned. Their safeties are geared to run-support and are not fleet-footed, thus will face nightmare matchups with Oregon’s tight ends that they will not be able to defend.
That vaunted defensive line better put ample pressure on Dante Moore, or this game will be over by halftime. I will be surprised if Will Stein doesn’t go scorched earth on the Red Raiders. We are looking at a package of offensive 50 gigaton nuclear bombs at our disposal, as the Tech defensive weakness in team speed is that glaring. When I say OBD receiver group will have a field day, I mean it will look like the beginning of the year and then some. And I believe Stein has protection packages to execute this advantage.
Guess what? Phil Steele believes that as well. The Red Raiders were considered the 54th ranked secondary in the country. Now I have to caution you, this is my opinion based on what I saw against BYU, Kansas State and Arizona State. It seemed so weird, I had to look at those games multiple times. So this is an opinion that may seem extremely biased given how well Tech has controlled their games this year. But I’m sticking with it.
Texas Tech QB Behren Morton cannot start out slow. (Photo Courtesy of Texas Tech Athletics)
Finally, a seldom mentioned factor by all pundits, and one completely ignored by Texas Tech writers is the long-layoff of 26 days between games. Oregon fans know of that issue, and last year we saw each of the teams that sat out the first playoff week lose their quarterfinal game, or be down at halftime. It is a very serious element that even Dan Lanning has mentioned that he is glad to avoid after last year. If Texas Tech starts out slow, and the Ducks start cooking through the air immediately in the first half? Look out!
Is this is one time that loosening a defense up through a passing attack could set up the rushing game later in the game?
So let me know your thoughts the-forum-with-decorum. Will Tech’s Defensive Line wreck havoc and destroy my perspective? I look forward to the great insight I have witnessed over the years in the only free, civilized, Oregon Football message board.
Mike West
Las Vegas, Nevada
Photo Courtesy of Texas Tech Athletics
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Mike West was born in Southern California and moved to Eugene in 1976. He attended his first Oregon Football game and watched USC maul the Ducks 63-0. Despite the disappointment he became an avid fan after watching the Rich Brooks show every Sunday in the Fall. After graduating from the University of Oregon, he returned to Los Angeles and enjoyed a career in Customer Service for two decades. Thrilled at the ascent of Oregon Football, he attended both Rose Bowls, living just five miles from the stadium. He now lives in Las Vegas.