Semifinals or Bust for the Ducks

It is my belief that if this season is to be considered a “success,” the Ducks must at least advance to the CFP semifinals. Even Mr. FishDuck took a moment from his fun at no KYC betting sites to agree with my standards.

Here are my thoughts on all potential outcomes:

A First-Round Loss

The only way the Ducks could “out-do” themselves in the name of futility, after last year’s quarterfinal blow-out loss to Ohio State, would be to lose to the “second-best” Group of 5 team.

The sky is falling.

This is pretty incomprehensible. But, hey, anything is possible. The buzz at Autzen hosting its first-ever playoff game, and they totally lay an egg. This would make for the longest offseason since the 4-8, 2016 team that said goodbye to the Mark Helfrich (and by extension the Brooks-Bellotti-Kelly-Helfrich era).

Oregon would recover from this, but the best way to avoid having to recover from an ailment is to not get sick in the first place.

A Quarterfinal Loss

Give Texas Tech credit; they have stepped up to the plate and become an NIL power player. But this is the kind of game that Oregon, under Dan Lanning, has to win. Losing this game, especially after last season, would leave a bad taste in the mouths of all Oregon fans. It would leave many to possibly think, “Maybe we are not as good of a program as we think we are.”

There would be a “here we go again, back to the drawing board” feeling over the program. Oregon would be clinging on to being a top-tier program with the idea of being in the crème de la crème top-tier category with Georgia and Ohio State seemingly far away.

This is a must-win for program sanity.

Hey Ducks, just win it all. (Photo by Max Unkrich)

A Semifinal Loss

Getting to the semifinals gets the Ducks over that psychological hump and into a plane of positivity: “OK, now this is where we belong.”

Therefore, losing in the semifinals would not be a season killer, but rather seen as something that has the Ducks on the right path and inching ever so closer. Who knows what is on Dante Moore’s mind as far as entering the NFL Draft, but getting this close to the championship could alter his thinking into the zone of, “We were on the cusp; I have to come back to win it all.”

A Championship Loss

Ouch! 0-3 in championship games over the past 15 years.

Coming so close creates a super high probability that Moore comes back in 2026 to get that championship. Odds are the Ducks would have lost to either Georgia or Ohio State, the two best programs in the country. To be the best, you have to beat the best, and that would be Oregon’s battle cry mantra for 2026.

The Ducks would be knocking on the door of the ultimate prize. Can they break through?

Of course, there is the possibility that Oregon just goes ahead and wins the whole damn thing this year. Now there is a novel idea. No offseason plotting, scheming, belly-aching, and hand-wringing by Oregon fans. Just, “Wow, we really did…”

I suppose it is worth a try.

Darren Perkins
Spokane, WA
Top photo credit: Max Unkrich

Natalie Liebhaber, the FishDuck.com Volunteer Editor for this article, works in financial technology in SLC, Utah.

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Darren Perkins

Darren Perkins is a sales professional and 1997 Oregon graduate. After finishing school, he escaped the rain and moved to sunny Southern California where he studied screenwriting for two years at UCLA. Darren grew up in Eugene and in 1980, at the tender age of five, he attended his first Oregon football game. His lasting memory from that experience was an enthusiastic Don Essig announcing to the crowd: “Reggie Ogburn, completes a pass to… Reggie Ogburn.” Captivated by such a thrilling play, Darren’s been hooked on Oregon football ever since. Currently living in Spokane, Darren enjoys flaunting his yellow and green superiority complex over friends and family in Cougar country.