Duck fans: are you not entertained?
Our Oregon football program enters the new year of 2026 prepping for the semifinals of the College Football Playoff, fresh off a resounding 23-0 victory over the Texas Tech Red Raiders in the Orange Bowl. The Ducks have advanced to the semis for the second time in the CFP era, the first since Dan Lanning joined the program. Even Mr. FishDuck paused from his fun at FanDuel Sportsbook, and his study at NCAAF latest news to share his excitement with me.
Now, we size up the Indiana Hoosiers to mock up a score prediction, as some of the premier defenses in the country clash with the potential first two picks in the 2026 NFL Draft. Dante Moore and Fernando Mendoza are both looking to lead their programs to their first College Football Playoff championship victory in team history.
So—who has the edge?
Dante Moore is the X-Factor of this rematch – Photo via Eric Becker
Quick Keys to an Oregon Victory
- Rush for 4.5+ YPC: The Ducks had an excellent day on offense to start in their first matchup with Indiana, averaging 4.8 yards per play and owning the line of scrimmage early. This opened up a couple of deep throws for Dante Moore, as Malik Benson found his way behind the defense like he so often has in 2025-2026. The problem? That was Benson’s only catch of the game. The Ducks need to find a way to do this again and keep it going into the fourth quarter, starting with their incredible tandem of freshmen running backs Jordon Davison and Dierre Hill Jr. reeling off some big runs.
- Win on Third Down: 3/14 on third down absolutely ruined Oregon’s chances at points in their first meeting. Will Stein’s going to have to be really smart with the ball and find a way to get Dante Moore some stability and structure—whatever he needs to pull out of the bag to sustain drives? I need to see it before he goes to Kentucky.
- Register a Sack in the 1st Quarter: Star defensive tackle A’Mauri Washington dominated the 1st quarter and needs to again. Let’s see him, Bear Alexander and co. find a way to get pressure up the middle and sack Indiana early. Mendoza shredded Alabama against the blitz, and that cannot happen against Oregon.
- Give Up 3 Sacks or Less: I cannot emphasize enough how much Moore being comfortable in the pocket is going to define this matchup. Alex Harkey and Pancho Laloulu had a subpar outing against the Red Raiders, a game that they will overwhelmingly bounce back from on Friday. I love how Isaiah World was able to adjust after a rough first half—maybe they used some of his game as “teach tape” for this week.
- Dominate the Perimeter: Finney Jr. may have to be the defensive MVP once again. He and the entire secondary had some rough plays with Elijah Sarratt’s squad on comeback routes/boundary routes, and I am not ready to forgo another trip to Miami because the Ducks can’t get a stop in 3rd-and-8+ situations. If Finney or Jadon Canady can break up some of those long third downs, the Ducks should be able to steal some momentum away from their multi-dimensional offense.
- 1+ Explosive Play in the First Half (20 yards+): Most of Oregon’s best skill players this year are freshmen. They have massively developed and earned even bigger roles since their last meeting with Indiana, even with injured players making their way back on the field. I cannot wait to see Davison, Dakorien Moore, and Hill Jr. get another shot to complement upperclassmen Kenyon Sadiq and Benson.
Stein is going to have to use this star power to its maximum potential – Photo via Eric Becker
Peach Bowl Score Prediction: 24-20 Oregon
For the most part? This is going to be a defensive slaughter. But the score doesn’t reflect that.
Similar to when Oregon faced the Red Raiders in the Orange Bowl, I expect neither team to give up much all game. Every score is going to come off of long, agonizingly sustained drives, which Indiana has allowed very few of all year. My score prediction reflects capitalizing on the mistakes that Indiana will make and not making any of Oregon’s own. That’s a big ask—but a necessary one.
Whenever Lanning has bad tape to immediately review and hyperfixate on, the issues are often massively reduced the week after. Of course, others may arise, but what I can say for (almost) certain is that there will be no mishandled snaps or lacking tackle play.
Also? The Ducks don’t have to manufacture being an underdog this week. They actually are. Currently standing as a 4.5-point underdog, I love the chances for Oregon to use this as a chip on their shoulder to not only cover but win outright.
As this game finishes up, I see a scenario where Oregon’s down 17-20 with the ball in the last two minutes of the fourth quarter, and instead of going for a field goal to go to overtime, they go for the jugular and win the game. WHAT a confidence booster that would be for Dante and Will to take this offense to their first College Football Playoff Championship appearance under Lanning.
Lanning knows what this game means. He’ll find a way to bring it home – Photo via Eric Becker
Overall: this matchup will be the toughest of Lanning’s career. It just feels like the one where Oregon football finally gets over the hump and gets back to Miami to win the CFP Championship. Haulting the Cinderella story of Curt Cignetti, although as impressive and impossible as it comes, the Ducks get a career-defining win under Lanning to claim national dominance as a true blueblood. What a true joy and pleasure it would be to see firsthand.
Anyway, enough from me, Oregon fans. What do you think? Is this score prediction on target? How will the Orange Bowl impact how the Ducks prep for Indiana? How would you compare the keys to victory in this game vs. the last time Oregon played Indiana? Let us know in the FishDuck Forum with decorum.
GO DUCKS!
Alex Heining
Los Angeles, California
Top Photo By: Scott Kelley
Alex Heining is an Oregon alumni from the graduate class of 2021. After studying sports business and media studies, he has moved into the field of digital marketing as a copywriter and content manager in the Los Angeles area. Still, he loves his Ducks and goes to local high school games all over the Los Angeles and Orange County area to check out new recruits of the future (and a SoFi game or two with the pros). On any given Saturday, expect to find him doing martial arts, playing the guitar, or screaming at the tv over a missed holding penalty.