We are all aware of how the super-close games can determine your Playoff or Championship destiny, but what happened in our new conference last season would be hard to believe–unless we witnessed it. B1G teams played 162 conference games in 2024 and an astounding 31 games, or 32.25%, (roughly a third of total games!) that were One Score games, games decided by eight points or less? The B1G’s 18 teams also had close calls in out-of-conference and for those that qualified, in post season games.
Often heard at B1G Media Days in Las Vegas: ‘If we’d won the close ones, we would have been a contender.’ Not heard: ‘Were we lucky or what?’
Even Mr. FishDuck snorted at observation, and he took a break from his fun studying handicap betting in NFL of which improves his gaming experience. However, even he was not aware of the significant impact that so many close games had on our new conference, the Big-10.
In 2024, the One-Score ball Bounced the Right Way for These Teams
10-3 – No. 12 – Illinois: Last season, the Fighting Illini went 6-1 in One-Score games, including a 21-17 Citrus Bowl win over a South Carolina team that, like Illinois, came into the game 9-3. Those complaining about the Gamecocks being plucked over by the Playoff Committee were silent after the Fighting Bielemas squeezed out a win.
But the sterling 6-1 record does not tell the whole story. Illinois trailed in five One-Score games that it came back to win in the 4th quarter. The Illini finished 1st in the nation in 4th quarter comeback wins.
Despite Illinois returning 14 starters from the 2024 team, including veteran QB Luke Altmeyer, and a schedule where the Illini miss Oregon and Penn State and play Ohio State in Champaign, these close-call comeback wins are likely why No. 14 Michigan and No. 34 Nebraska have better odds to make the 2025 playoffs.
8-5 – No. 14 Michigan: Sherrone Moore’s first season as the Wolverines head coach would have been far rockier had Michigan not gone a robust 5-1 in One-Score games. Michigan fans were probably the happiest 8-5 fans in the nation after their team defeated Ohio State 13-10 in Columbus and 9-3 Alabama in its bowl game.
How could a heavyweight program like Michigan get such a lightweight 2025 schedule? (Photo by Naji Saker)
Alabama, another 9-3 SEC team that was playoff-hosed over according to the Dixiecrats, had all hands on deck for the game, including first-round draft pick QB Jalen Milroe, while none of Michigan’s top draft picks played ball.
Michigan hosts No. 3 Ohio State in 2025, while missing No. 2 Penn State, No. 7 Oregon, and No. 44 and underrated Iowa, and draws projected B1G lightweights Wisconsin, Michigan State, Purdue, Northwestern, and Maryland.
The second game of the season on the road against Moore’s alma mater, No. 18 Oklahoma, in Week 2, will be tough, but Michigan plays the easiest schedule in the B1G in 2025 and should contend for an at-large playoff spot.
13-3 – No. 2 Penn State: went 3-3 in One-Score games last season, winning games against Bowling Green, USC in double OT, and Minnesota by one point. James Franklin failed to defeat the 2024-25 AP final poll ranked No. 1 Ohio State, No. 2 Notre Dame, and No. 3 Oregon.
Many of Penn State’s top players return in 2025, but are James Franklin and the returnees, and highly ranked transfer portal newcomers, ready to meet expectations?
14-2 – No. 3 Ohio State: went 2-2 in One-Score games in 2024-25, including a one-point loss to the Ducks. I apologize for not being able to recall the score of the Ducks first game in 2025.
13-1 – No. 7 Oregon: went 3-0 in One-Score games last season, winning home games against playoff teams Boise State and Ohio State, and in the 8th game in a row against B1G opponents, 16-13 on the road versus Wisconsin.
Teitum Tuioti made certain that USC came up short…again. (Photo by Craig Strobeck)
On The Other Hand, We Find an Old ‘Friend,’ USC
7-6 – No. 30 USC: The B1G’s what-if team in 2024 was, without doubt, USC. The Trojans went 4-5 in One-Score games, with 5 losses coming in-conference against Michigan, Minnesota, Penn State, in double OT, Maryland, and Washington. SC also lost 35-49 to playoff runner-up Notre Dame in a game that was in doubt late in the 4th quarter, where SC put up the most yards against the Irish in 2024-25.
Amidst the B1G losses, the Trojans did win One-Score games against LSU and Texas A&M in season book-end games in Las Vegas, defeated Nebraska, and won the rivalry game against UCLA.
Turn around the one-score games in 2025, without Ohio State and Penn State on the schedule and Michigan in LA, and SC will challenge for the B1G title and a spot in the playoffs.
Here’s hoping the Ducks continue to win all of the one-score games in 2025, including a Week 5 White Out game at Penn State, challenging road games at Iowa and UW, and what could be one of the top B1G games of the season in Autzen against USC.
Jon Joseph
Aiken, South Carolina
Top Photo by Eric Becker
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Jon Joseph grew up in Boston, Massachusetts but has been blessed to have lived long enough in the west to have exorcised all east coast bias. He played football in college and has passionately followed the game for seven decades. A retired corporate attorney Jon has lectured across the country and published numerous articles on banking and gaming law. Now a resident of Aiken South Carolina, Jon follows college football across the nation with a focus on the Conference of Champions and the Ducks.