Oregon, Penn State Faceoff in Battle of Unknown Quantities

The No. 6 Oregon Ducks are walking into one of the biggest stages in college football on Saturday to tackle No. 3 Penn State before a raucous White Out crowd at Beaver Stadium. The College Gameday crew, including a likely shirtless Pat McAfee, will do their level best to draw all eyes to Happy Valley for a heavyweight rematch of last year’s Big Ten Championship game.

And yet, there are plenty of Ducks and Nittany Lions fans who don’t know really how they feel about this weekend’s matchup. Is Oregon good? What about Penn State? It’s almost impossible to say based on the current sample size. The heartless Ducks fan says the Nittany Lions don’t pass the laugh test and Oregon will roll. The realist and skeptic wrings his hands in fear and loathing, certain the Ducks will break their heart — again.

As these unknown quantities collide in what is sure to be a Big Ten classic, to the victor go the spoils.

Despite meteoric preseason expectations, the Nittany Lions have yet to face an opponent worthy of bringing home for lunch with mom. Penn State (3-0) put the FBS to sleep after zombie-walking past Nevada, Florida International and Villanova, failing to produce much of a highlight reel, but decidedly beating clearly inferior opposition.

Oregon and Penn State meet on Saturday for a rematch of last year’s Big Ten Championship game. Photo by Eric Becker

Oregon (4-0) pummeled Montana State, Oklahoma State, Northwestern and Oregon State in spectacular fashion, unceremoniously sending Cowboys head coach Mike Gundy into retirement after an embarrassing 69-3 smackdown in Week 2 at Autzen Stadium. (Don’t be surprised if Gundy starts slanging chalupas at a Del Taco drive-thru.)

The matchup features Oregon’s explosive offense against a Penn State team that, at times, has looked shaky despite a Snuggles soft schedule. However, the Nittany Lions have wisely retained former Ohio State defensive coordinator Jim Knowles, who last year dropped a monumental turd into Oregon’s postseason punch bowl, ending a perfect season while draining the blood from the faces of a stupefied fanbase. The trauma is real.

Penn State senior Drew Allar has opened the season with steady production but, unfortunately for the Blue and White faithful, is about as reliable as Count Chocula. Over the same time period, Oregon’s Dante Moore has emerged as one of the nation’s most efficient passers, delivering back-shoulder cheese with plenty of mustard to rank among the top 15 in yards per pass attempt (FBS).

Allar, with a bigger frame and more experience, has completed 57 of 88 passes (64.7%) for 626 yards and four touchdowns with one interception in three starts. His best outing came in the opener against Nevada, when he completed 22 of 26 passes (84.6%) for 217 yards and a touchdown. His yards per attempt sit at 7.1, and he has been sacked three times.

Penn State head coach James “Big Game” Franklin has a less-than-stellar record of winning games against top-ranked teams. Photo by Eric Becker

In his last two outings before last week’s bye, however, Allar completed just 57.6% of his pass attempts against FIU and 55.2% against Villanova, the fighting Will D. Cats. A 50% completion rate is cheeks (as the kids say), making Allar inconsistent against modest competition thus far.

Moore, meanwhile, has completed 71 of 95 passes (74.7%) for 962 yards, 11 touchdowns and one interception. He has averaged 10.1 yards per attempt and posted a season-best 229.7 passer rating against Oklahoma State. Moore has taken only one sack. But Moore has never played in this type of big game environment. So, the redshirt sophomore is facing baptism by fire. Will he meet the challenge?

Penn State leans on veteran backs Kaytron Allen and Nick Singleton, neither of whom has demonstrated the explosiveness promised in the preseason hype…err, I mean analysis. Don’t be fooled, though. These are NFL-ready backs, and they are more than capable of making it a long day for the Ducks.

Oregon’s depth at tailback is criminally underrated. Oregon’s running back by committee, featuring Jayden Limar, Noah Whittington, Jordon Davison, Dierre Hill Jr., Jay Harris and Makhi Hughes, has kept defenses off balance with fresh, versatile bodies, and the Ducks average more yards per carry than the Lions (Oregon has averaged 6.7 yards per carry versus PSU’s 5.5 yards). Oregon’s backs don’t have the same name recognition as Allen and Singleton, but they’ve been more efficient in space.

Freshman Dakorien Moore has emerged as a game-breaker for Oregon, stretching defenses in ways Penn State’s receivers have not. The Lions boast a talented tight end in Luke Reynolds, but he pales in comparison to his wunderkind predecessor, Colts rookie tight end Tyler Warren.

If Oregon’s younger defense, featuring the likes of Brandon Finney Jr., Ify Obidegwu, and Aaron Flowers, can contain the ground game and force Allar’s decidedly mediocre aerial attack, the Ducks have a good shot of pulling off an upset on the road.

Oregon and Penn State both have a lot to prove during Saturday’s game. Photo by Eric Becker

Penn State’s front seven, led by Dani Dennis-Sutton, will likely pressure Moore in ways unfamiliar to him thus far. While the Ducks’ offensive line has allowed just one sack through four games, there have been occasional footwork, blocking, and body positioning issues from Oregon’s Dancing Bears upfront, and Penn State’s defense will be less forgiving of those types of miscues.

On the other side, Matayo Uiagalelei, Amare Washington and Teitum Tuioti have been disruptive for the Ducks, but not total game wreckers, so it will be interesting to see how they fare against a stout offensive line.

In big games, Oregon head coach Dan Lanning‘s squads have consistently come to high-stakes showdowns ready to play. They don’t always win, but they always put up a fight. History favors Oregon’s preparation and adaptability. However, this is Lanning’s first colossal road game since arriving in Eugene. James “Big Game” Franklin is 4-20 against AP top-10 opponents, with just one such win at home.

Penn State is 13-8 in White Out games since the tradition began, but has won six straight since 2019 and has taken eight of the last nine. Some of the White Out losses include No. 8 Ohio State (2018), No. 4 Michigan (2015),  and No. 13 Ohio State (2014).

Let’s be real: The deck is certainly stacked in favor of PSU. Oregon could lose its first real test on the road in a hostile environment several time zones from home. For some, Penn State’s White Out atmosphere even offers a seven-point swing.  But Oregon has the firepower and balance to overcome it.

If Moore stays composed and the Ducks strike early and often, their speed and depth could wear down the Lions, putting more pressure on Allar to save the day. On defense, Oregon must stop, or marginally disrupt, Penn State’s ground game, forcing them to rely on Allar’s funky arm and questionable decision-making.

Prediction: Oregon 31, Penn State 24.

Jordan Ingram

Jordan is a lifelong Duck fan currently living in San Diego. Jordan graduated from The Evergreen State College in Olympia, Washington, after serving a prestigious fellowship with the Washington State House of Representatives.  Upon graduation, he worked as an English language teaching assistant for the Spanish Ministry of Education’s Ambassadorial Program in Monforte de Lemos, Spain.  Jordan has worked as a journalist, writer, and editor in Oregon, Washington, Montana, and California, covering a wide range of topics, including sports, local politics, and crime. He is VERY excited to be writing about his beloved Oregon Ducks.