Oregon Ducks Look to Break USC in High-Stakes Top 15 Showdown

For the first time in a decade, the Ducks and Lil’ Troy Boys will meet as ranked opponents with conference and College Football Playoff positioning on the line when No. 7 Oregon hosts No. 15 USC on Saturday at Autzen Stadium.

The Ducks (9-1, 6-1 Big Ten) and Trojans (8-2, 6-1) enter in a three-way tie with Michigan for third place in the Big Ten, with the winner staying in contention for a spot in the conference title game if No. 1 Ohio State or No. 2 Indiana stumbles down the stretch. Both teams also sit near the cutoff line in the 12-team CFP race, making this a de facto elimination game for their playoff hopes.

There’s no more grace period or learning curve. No more slow, clunky starts, half-baked trick plays or a lack of focus. Everything the Ducks have played for all season is now on the line. Flop the nuts, push the stack, lay ’em down.

Oddsmakers have made Oregon roughly a 10-point favorite, with the line moving to double digits during the week, reflecting both the Ducks’ recent form and USC’s struggles on the road against ranked opponents. Since Lincoln “Glassjaw” Riley arrived at USC in 2022, the Trojans are 1-6 against ranked teams on the road and 2-18 in their last 20 such games overall. They have not won at Autzen Stadium since 2011.

Oregon brings one of the country’s most balanced teams into the matchup. The Ducks rank 11th nationally in total offense at 475.4 yards per game and third in total defense at 235.4. Quarterback Dante Moore has thrown for 2,190 yards and 21 touchdowns, and Oregon’s passing attack is complemented by an eighth-ranked rushing offense that has become the engine of offensive coordinator Will Stein’s scheme.

Oregon quarterback Dante Moore looks to continue his passing efficiency against USC this weekend after a record-breaking performance against Minnesota. Photo by Max Unkrich

The Ducks’ trio of bruising haybalers, Noah Whittington, Jordan Davison and Dierre Hill Jr., has been among the most productive in the nation. All three backs are averaging at least seven yards per carry, and together they have 28 runs of 20 yards or more, second-most nationally.

It’s this type of production that presents a Rubik’s Cube for a USC defense that has surrendered about 200 rushing yards per game over the past four weeks and allowed more than 300 rushing yards to Notre Dame earlier this season. (To be fair, is there anyone who can stop Jeremiyah Love?)

Freshman wide receiver Dakorien Moore has quickly developed into one of the Ducks’ most reliable targets, showing the speed to stretch the field and the polish to win in tight coverage. Tight end Kenyon Sadiq is coming off one of his strongest performances of the season against Minnesota (cue the “Air Sadiq” marketing campaign), flashing the size and versatility that coaches have praised since hurdling Penn State defenders en route to a Big Ten title last season.

Together, DK and Sadiq give quarterback Dante Moore the potential for pyrotechnics anywhere on the field — nightmare fuel for USC’s secondary, which may be short-handed with injuries at safety and has struggled at times against physical pass catchers in the middle of the field.

USC, which ranks fifth nationally in total offense at 488.9 yards per game, counters with one of the nation’s most explosive passing attacks. Quarterback Jayden Maiava has been one of college football’s most efficient passers at home, completing 74% of his attempts and averaging 10.7 yards per attempt at the Coliseum, but his production hits a pothole on the road. In five true road games as USC’s starter, Maiava has completed fewer than 57% of his passes, with his yards per attempt dropping by nearly three yards and his turnover and sack numbers increasing.

However, Maiava is slippery in the pocket, frequently escaping blitzes and loaded boxes to make a play with one of his talented wideouts.

The Trojans’ offensive centerpiece is wide receiver Makai Lemon, a freak athlete who has 1,090 receiving yards and eight touchdowns and is widely regarded as one of the top wideouts in the country. Oregon is expected to counter with All-American caliber cornerback Brandon Finney Jr., and the Lemon–Finney matchup looms as one of the key one-on-one battles.

The No. 7 Oregon Ducks are looking to help seal their path to the College Football Playoff with a victory over USC on Saturday at Autzen Stadium. Photo by Max Unkirch

The Ducks’ pass defense leads the nation, allowing just 127.3 yards per game and the fewest plays of 20-plus yards in college football — only 17 in 10 contests. That directly confronts a USC offense built on chunk plays; the Trojans had 17 plays of 20 or more yards in their first two games alone.

One of the more intriguing storylines for this game is the stellar play from USC transfers Emmanuel Pregnon and Bear Alexander and their individual motivations to whip their former teammates like rented mules. Pregnon, a mass of humanity on the Ducks’ offensive line at 6-foot-5 and 320 pounds, has been a royal huscarl for Moore, allowing just two QB pressures and zero sacks this season.

Alexander, 6’3″and 300 pounds, has muscled his way into the spotlight along the defensive front as a big boy body-snatcher; a colossus relocating tender souls into the next astral plane. Bear and Pregnon have been nothing short of spectacular, and this game promises to bring an extra dollop of personal umbrage to the opera of dancing bears in the trenches.

On the other side of the ball, Oregon’s offensive plan appears straightforward: run through the faceguards of every USC frontman, a group that has struggled against physical rushing attacks, and shorten the game. Whittington, Davison and Hill, chaperoned by a veteran offensive line, promise to wear down the Trojans’ dollhouse of fragility, also known as the USC “defense,” and set up favorable passing situations for Moore. A good old-fashioned Pac-2 shootout is likely not the avenue the Ducks want to explore with our neighbors to the south. As local play-by-play announcer and former Oregon quarterback Mike Jorgensen would say: “Run the dang ball.”

USC’s best chance to counter will be in the backfield, where redshirt freshman walk-on running back King Miller has emerged as a surprise contributor. Miller is averaging 7.26 yards per carry, third in the Big Ten, behind three Oregon backs who sit in first, second and fourth in the conference. The Trojans are still short-handed, however, with former starting back Waymond Jordan not expected to return, adding pressure on Miller and the offensive line to establish the run and protect Maiava in the Autzen crucible.

Oregon’s stout defense will look to put a lid on USC’s potent offense. Photo by Max Unkrich

Defensively, USC also faces injury concerns in the secondary. Starting safeties Bishop Fitzgerald and Kamari Ramsey left last week’s win over Iowa with injuries; Fitzgerald is unlikely to play, and Ramsey has been limited in practice. That could thrust Christian Pierce and Kennedy Urlacher into larger roles against a Ducks passing attack that has been efficient even while missing its top receivers at times this season.

The red zone may decide the game. Oregon’s defense ranks near the bottom of the FBS in red-zone stops, while USC’s offense is ninth nationally in red-zone scoring. If the Trojans can sustain drives and finish with touchdowns instead of field goals, they can offset Oregon’s advantages on defense and on the ground. An important note: While the Ducks surrender points in the red zone, most teams rarely see the paint against Oregon.

For Oregon, a win would keep the Ducks inside the CFP bracket with a realistic shot at earning a first-round home playoff game, even if a top-four seed and first-round bye remain unlikely. Team observers have noted that a No. 5 or No. 6 seed — with a home game at Autzen against a lower-seeded opponent — might be the most favorable route, particularly given the Ducks’ strong home-field advantage and past struggles coming off long breaks.

A loss, however, would likely push Oregon outside the top 12 and leave the Ducks relying on chaos to climb back into contention, turning what has been a controlled playoff path into a wobbly and uncertain scenario.

USC’s offensive firepower and Lemon’s big-play ability give the Trojans a chance to stay close, but Oregon’s depth, defensive numbers and dominant rushing attack make the Ducks a clear favorite at home.

But as Oregon fans, there is always a lingering concern, mostly irrational, that Oregon won’t show up to play; that the Trojans will walk into Autzen and pants Lanning, schmooze the cheerleaders and serenade a group of visiting recruits like a wandering minstrel with an a cappella rendition of “Fight On”; that Dante Moore will get spooked early and start throwing to invisible hobgoblins in hooded sackcloth; that Lemon and Lane will tap dance into the end zone for record-breaking performances; that Lincoln “Dinky Doo” Riley, laden with woes and saddled with burdens, will finally live up to the astronomical expectations placed around his neck like a millstone by the Los Angeles elite desperate for a return to the glory days of…errr…OJ Simpson?

Not today. Today is the day Oregon rises to meet the moment and cements its seat at the postseason table. Today is the day Oregon buries the Trojans under a volcanic heap of talent, process, and execution, erasing their opponent’s playoff dreams like the lost civilization at Pompeii. Go. Ducks.

Kickoff is scheduled for 12:30 p.m. PST on Saturday (CBS, Paramount+).