The 10 commissioners of the Power 4 and Group of 6 (G6) conferences, and the Notre Dame Athletic Director, must decide by January 23, 2026, whether to expand the College Football (CFB) Playoff (PO) field. If no agreement on expansion is reached by the 23rd, the 2026-27 PO format will remain the same; 12 teams seeded as ranked. Four Power 4, ACC, Big Ten (B1G), B12, and SEC champions and the highest-ranked G6 team automatically qualify, with seven additional teams decided on by the Playoff (PO) Committee.
Notre Dame automatically qualifying if ranked in the top 12 has not been formally agreed to. Our own Mr. FishDuck paused from his study of foreign betting sites in Spain to share some thoughts with me on the ‘Irish.
The B1G and the SEC (Power 2) have the voting power to decide on the PO format, and the Power 2 conferences are still at loggerheads on what a future PO format should be.
The ACC, B12, and the SEC want the PO to expand to 16 teams with their and the B1G conference champion in the field, joined by the highest-ranked team from the G6, and 11 at-large teams determined by the PO Committee.
The B1G wants the field to expand to 24 teams. If 24 teams can be agreed upon, the B1G will not insist on automatic qualifiers beyond the Power 4 conference champions and the highest-ranked G6 team.
Tony Petitti, B1G Commissioner truly has a big job in the next week. (Screenshot from Big 10 Network Video)
The B1G is aware that expanding to 24 teams cannot be realized, due to scheduling issues and conference championship broadcast agreements, before the 2028-29 season.
Accordingly, the B1G has offered a compromise, a 16-team field for the next three seasons in exchange for an agreement to expand the field to 24 teams, beginning in 2028-29. Only one G6 team would be allowed in the expanded field.
The proposed 24-team format would have the top 8-seeds with a 1st round bye, and the first two rounds played on campus, 16 games in all. The next two rounds would be played in the six bowls now in the rota, plus two additional bowls for the quarter-final round, with the championship game site put out to bid.
To accommodate expansion to 24 teams, conference championship games would be eliminated. The Army-Navy game would be moved from the second Saturday in December to the first Saturday, with first-round games played on the Friday before and on the 2nd Saturday of December.
Conference championship games would be eliminated, and there would be no conference play-in games. There would be no automatic qualifiers. The G6 would be capped at one representative; there would be no cap on Power 4 teams.
We will have to tolerate Group-of-Six teams in the Playoffs (Photo by Stephen Chan)
Expanding the field to 24 teams seems radical. However, if the NCAA managed the FBS playoff as it does all other college football playoffs, the P4 and G6 would have had a 24-team PO field decades ago.
I expect a 24-team format with one G6 representative, is designed in part to encourage the G6, as augmented by revenue from the P4, to hold its own postseason tournament. Tulane and James Madison University, and the exclusion of ACC champion Virginia, made for an interesting story. However, neither team was competitive in the first round games played at Ole Miss and Oregon.
What else might a 24-team field with equal access for the ACC, B1G, B12, and the SEC beginning in 2029-30 accomplish?
The PO broadcast agreement with ESPN concludes in 2031-32. Expanding the PO to 24 teams means PO media revenue, with bids from competitors of ESPN, would more than double from new revenue sources or from ESPN stepping up to maintain its PO broadcast monopoly. The streaming of PO games could also increase revenue.
Increased revenue could alleviate the need for a Super Conference, and millions of CFB fans being ‘disenfranchised’ from further CFB consolidation. There would be no need for the B1G or the SEC to add teams from the ACC and the B12 to increase revenue from increased market share.
Oregon will have epic games in the future! (Photo by Naji Saker)
Also, with the Power 4 on the same PO page and helping with G6 postseason revenue, there would be a unified front to get Congress to provide relief from litigation and the opportunity to reach an agreement with the athletes on transfer and other issues that have billionaires battling to have U or State at the pinnacle of CFB.
He’s turned it down, so far, but Miami has offered Alabama QB Ty Simpson $6.5 million to play ball for one season as an example.
In summary, I expect to see a 12-team Playoff next season, with the championship being played in Las Vegas on January 25, 2027. Hopefully, with the Ducks on the field and many fans of OBD in the stands.
Jon Joseph
Aiken, South Carolina
Top Photo by Tom Corno
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Jon Joseph grew up in Boston, Massachusetts but has been blessed to have lived long enough in the west to have exorcised all east coast bias. He played football in college and has passionately followed the game for seven decades. A retired corporate attorney Jon has lectured across the country and published numerous articles on banking and gaming law. Now a resident of Aiken South Carolina, Jon follows college football across the nation with a focus on the Conference of Champions and the Ducks.