How the Big-10 Football Schedule Can Become Fair

Many thanks to those who gave freely of their thoughts in the thread titled: “Is ‘Flexible Symmetry’ the Answer to Big-10 Scheduling?” This rainy Sunday morning in Eugene I asked Charles to lock that thread. As requested, you have given me a load to sort through and I will consider some of that below. As anticipated, you provided information I did not know. When Mr. FishDuck noted this topic, he took a break from his gaming fun at Free Spins US to share his frustration with the current schedule–for the Ducks and other Big-10 teams.

The issue: “Can B1G-Ten Scheduling be made fair?”

The schedule for the season that begins this fall of 2026, was delivered in a format of team logos, which, while concise, needs contemplation to comprehend.

I used the past two seasons to rank the B1G’s top eight teams for this analysis:

1. Indiana – plays Ohio State, Michigan and USC
2. Oregon – plays USC, Illinois, Ohio State, Michigan,
3. Ohio State – plays Illinois, Iowa, Indiana, USC, Oregon, Michigan
4. Iowa plays – Michigan, Ohio State, Illinois
5. Michigan – plays Iowa, Penn State, Indiana, Oregon, Ohio State
6. Illinois – plays Ohio State, Oregon, Iowa
7. USC – plays Oregon, Penn State, Ohio State, Indiana
8. Penn State – plays USC, Michigan

Facts:

Ohio State plays six of the top eight teams
Michigan plays five of the top eight teams, including 1-4.
Oregon plays five of the top eight.
Penn State plays only two of the top eight.

In the original thread that prompted this search for a better way to schedule, I asked the forum to provide some evidence that travel made a difference in the outcome of games. None was provided.

Curt Cignetti is quoted as saying travel did not make a difference.

Conclusion from looking at the 2026 schedule: (Understand that a conclusion is an opinion, and in this case, my own opinion.)
It is not fair that Ohio State plays five teams that have been very good over the past two years, and Penn State plays only two teams that have been very good over the past two years.

It is the usual course to support a conclusion with proof. We will not have that proof until after November 28, 2026, when Michigan plays at Ohio State. “Game Day” will probably be attending. But if Ohio State finishes the season with three losses out of five games against the top eight teams in the conference it is reasonable for their fans to argue that they got screwed by the scheduling.

My plan is to write B1G Commissioner Tony Petitti in the next few weeks about our threads, our thoughts and my own conclusions from those threads and thoughts. I will tell him what I expect is going to happen to Ohio State and Michigan. And, I will ask him to consider our ideas about a better way for the B1G to schedule football, including having a bye week that allows rest without eight consecutive games.

Here is what I learned from those of you who posted on the previous thread. Jon Joseph said: “This is what the B1G HQ aimed for when it came up with the football schedules through 2028. Balance as much as possible over five seasons.” I did not know that the B1G scheduled five years in advance trying to have every team face every other team in the conference.

My gut tells me that five years in advance will inevitably lead to some unfairness after two years and beyond, as it has for 2026, in my opinion. In 2023 when the five-year schedule was hatched, nobody anticipated that Indiana would be both conference champion and national champion two years later. There must be a better way!

As to dividing the conference into Divisions, Iubhounds told us: “Don’t think the B1G can logically make two even divisions with any number of teams. They tried that before, then used different names, leading to the East and West Divisions. They were so even that a bad Indiana team was stuck playing Ohio State, Michigan, Michigan State (when they were good) and Penn State every year in the East Division.”

Well, the B1G didn’t have 18 teams when they tried Divisions before, and it may become 20 teams in 2030. Not having enough teams to even out the Divisions may have caused the failure of Divisions.

And, noDucknewby emphasized the difficulty of separating teams into somewhat equal Divisions when he said: “HOWEVER, this in no way works competitively with Indiana, Michigan, OSU and PSU all on the east side. You can swap some border teams around to try and get some competitive parity, but it’s a real problem because Michigan, OSU and PSU sit in the center of the east side. It’s hard to split Michigan and OSU, but it could be done with a rivalry guaranty.”

Also, thanks to Jon Joseph for raising the possibility of one or two “flex-games” at the end of the schedule. That was the key for trying symmetrical Divisions in the 2027 season with only 18 teams in the conference. With a flex-game the B1G does not need to expand to 20 schools in order to have scheduling that is closer to being fair.

The proposal to Commissioner Petitti will be to create two nine-team Divisions for 2027 and 2028. Each Division will have a round-robin of eight games against every other team in the Division and a ninth flex-game between teams from the other Division. The flex-game will have teams that finish first in each Division playing for the Conference Championship. On the same weekend, second place will play second from the other Division down through ninth place playing ninth. So, along with a Conference Champion, there will be an overall determination of which division was the best.

There is the symmetry part. Now for the Divisions. For the first two years we can consider geography and traditional rivalries.

The numbers to the right of each team are the rank of their finish in the last two years. Oregon and Indiana each finished first and third, so their total was 4. I broke the tie with Indiana ahead because they beat OBD twice last year. Purdue finished last each year, their total is 36.

This Division proposal is presented for the next two years. After that the Divisions will reorganize based on performance in 2027 and 2028. Then the Conference can seriously consider expansion. That is the next article topic after you give me your ideas on this one. We are grateful that noDucknewbie provided us a wonderful map below to offer perspective…

He emphasized that with Indiana, Ohio State, Michigan and Penn State all in the east it does not work competitively. That may turn out to be true, but Indiana has a lot to live up to, and Penn State may take a long time to recover from last year. Note that the division above puts almost all of the teams that finished in the middle during the last two years placed in the WEST Division; Minnesota, Washington, Nebraska and UCLA.

Lots of opportunity for upset games when top teams in the West play those four.

What are your thoughts? Let me know in the Our Beloved Ducks forum where we discuss everything Oregon.

Mike Whitty
Eugene, Oregon
Top Photo by Eric Becker