As you know, I enjoy pondering about Our Beloved Ducks, and do so effectively out loud between these FishDuck articles, and our free, safe forum for Oregon fans. There were grumbles after the Rose Bowl loss about our defensive shortcomings that day, and I began to cogitate on what is a reasonable goal for points being given up by Oregon’s defense? I had to take a break from my research of football playbooks to delve into this with you. Does it really change when in the Playoffs, and when going for our first ‘Natty?
I am curious as to what your thoughts are beyond the usual “the lowest points possible,” because I think some of averages might be surprising when looking at the past, and considering some other factors that impact your thoughts. For example, Ohio State only gave up 12.87 points per game average in winning the CFB National Championship this last year, yet gave up 32 points at Autzen. Their roster had some superb portal transfers, and that can be duplicated. What cannot are the tons of 5th year seniors on that team who actually declined going to the NFL, to play for the Buckeyes another year.
Can that kind of defense be duplicated again? Especially now that the COVID add-on eligibility time period has passed, and the trend toward going to the NFL as soon as possible?
I decided to take a look at the past Duck defensive averages, and give us perspective on how we ended in the final rankings after all the bowls and Playoffs took place. Note how Oregon averaged the 19.43 points per game average given up this last year, but do compare that number to the years that Oregon finished No. 2 in the nation.
I was surprised when I pulled this together, as the best years on defense at 16.50 points given up per game average finished the worst among the eight examples, at No. 6 and No. 5 in the nation. I recall not that many years ago of wishing for an average of 22 points per game given up, and a dream was averaging 20 points per game, or effectively what the Ducks accomplished this last year.
But with Dan Lanning…haven’t expectations and defensive goals changed?
Creating turnovers is key to the Duck defense! (Screenshot from B1G Sports Video)
Others would question how viable it is to compare to the past–when defenses were challenged by the then little understood Shotgun Spread Offense. It took years, but eventually college football learned how to slow the scoring, and changes in the rules helped to accommodate the defenses as well. The No-Huddle aspect is often negated by referees holding the ball until the defensive substitutions jog on the field. Everybody has the “Spread Offense” advantage, thus another reason scoring has slowed down.
Another element is how the new rules shortened the game; not by a ton, but certainly shaved off some points being scored by offenses with fewer possessions available. So that component would help our defensive averages, as well as being in a new conference that simply does not score as much as the wild Pac-12 days. So shouldn’t that make our defensive goals more attainable? Doesn’t this realistic assessment also give credit to prior Oregon defenses that had to contend with high-scoring offenses every week in the old Pac-12?
Defensive Goals for TWO Categories?
When setting these defensive goals, it became apparent that I had to look closer at the quality of offensive opponent. Face it…the teams you are up against in the Playoffs can score, and it is very hard to stop them. In 2024…the Ducks gave up 35.75 (36) points to the Playoff opponents, such as Boise State, Ohio State (twice) and Penn State, while Oregon gave up an average of 12.90 (13) points per game to the other ten opponents.
Holy Toledo…what a difference!
Now the overall average last year was the 19.43 points, but it is quite evident that it does not tell the full story. And you often do not know if the team you gave up a boatload of points to is a “good” team until after the season has ended. But that difference of giving up 36 points on average to Playoff teams, and 13 points to the rest? Good-gosh, what a massive margin! I believe we all are quite satisfied with holding down the “other” teams, but would want our coaches to focus on stopping the Playoff-caliber offenses on the schedule.
But is that realistic? When facing the top teams in the Playoffs–these teams can score…
An incredible defensive play–an interception by Nikko Reed preserved the B1G Championship victory. (Photo by Eric Becker)
Who on 2025 schedule will stretch our average? Penn State, USC, and maybe Indiana? Three in regular season like last year, then the Playoffs–games of which will distort upwards the defensive average. What are your thoughts when looking at the 2025 schedule right here, while right here is the 2024 schedule for comparison. It seems the more I ponder, the more I am puzzled as to how to approach my defensive expectations and goals?
What is a reasonable target? Or instead of a season average–should we break them into two groups of averages for the “usual” opponents, and “exceptional” offenses we are facing? I am becoming inclined to favor this over a season average. Perhaps a target of under 15 points for the usual, and under 30 points for the exceptional? That puts pressure on the Oregon offense, but isn’t that a more realistic approach to setting our defensive goals?
Do let me know your thoughts in the only free, safe, Oregon Football Message board available, the Our Beloved Ducks forum, because…
“Oh, how we love to ponder about Our Beloved Ducks!“
Charles Fischer (Mr. FishDuck)
Eugene, Oregon
Top Screenshot from CBS Sports Video
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Charles Fischer has been an intense fan of the Ducks, a season ticket holder at Autzen Stadium for 38 years and has written reports on football boards for over 26 years. Known as “FishDuck” on those boards, he is acknowledged for providing intense detail in his scrimmage reports, and in his Xs and Os play analyses. He is single, has a daughter Christine, and resides in Eugene Oregon where he was a Financial Advisor for 36 years.
He now focuses full-time on Charitable Planned Giving Workshops for churches and non-profit organizations in addition to managing his two Oregon Football Websites, of FishDuck.com and the Our Beloved Ducks forum. He is a busy man!
He does not profess to be a coach or analyst, but simply a “hack” that enjoys sharing what he has learned and invites others to correct or add to this body of Oregon Football! See More…