In today’s world of College Football (CFB), there are more preseason rankings than there are attempts to solve for Pi. Mathematicians tell us that Pi cannot be solved; similarly, preseason rankings will never be spot on especially when we are referring to SEC teams. Yet, our Mr. FishDuck had to take a break from his gaming study at PA sportsbook promos to weigh in with me about these rankings.
The 2024 preseason AP Poll performed well at the top, as No. 1 Georgia, No. 2 Ohio State, No. 3 Oregon, and No. 4 Texas all made the playoff field. However, No. 5 Alabama, No. 6 Ole Miss, No. 9 Michigan, and No. 10 Florida State all had three or more losses, and in FSU’s case, the Seminoles failed to qualify for the postseason. There were no repercussions for the AP voters who whiffed on their preseason votes.
On the other hand, gaming sites with future odds for teams to make the initial 12-team playoff (PO) had skin in the game, money at risk. The folks setting odds for a given gaming site risk unemployment if the odds are out of whack. Yes, odds are designed to ‘balance the book,’ have an equal amount bet on both sides of the ledger, but the gaming odds generally produce preseason ‘rankings’ closer to the CFB PO committee’s final poll in December than the ‘CFB Experts’ best guess.
Any preseason poll that does not aim to match the committee’s final ranking is fun to ponder, perhaps, but meaningless. Mr. CFB Expert’s take on what the AP preseason poll will look like is risk-averse when compared with a gaming site’s odds on a team making the PO.
Here’s a look at one top gaming site, FanDuel’s, odds on top-contending teams making the 2025-26 PO. Does a top-contender’s schedule match its odds to make the 12-team PO field? When comparing odds to schedules, which teams look like the best bets?
Sports betting is becoming popular, especially college football. (Photo by Pricilla Du Preez CA on Unsplash.com)
A gaming refresher. A plus number is what a $100 bet returns in profit if your bet wins. +110 returns $110 on a $100 bet and the original bet. A minus number, -110, means you need to bet $110 to win $100 plus the return of the amount bet.
Of the top 5 contenders in the Power 4 conferences and the G6 conferences, which teams have the easiest and most difficult path to the Playoff?
The strength-of-schedule (SOS) rankings use the preseason SOS rankings for the 136 contending teams as determined by Bill Connolly’s SP+. (SP+ is SEC-centric but far less so than ESPN’s FPI. The below SOS rankings include out-of-conference (OOC) games.)
How much consideration will the PO committee give a team’s SOS in 2025? In 2024, notwithstanding a weak SOS in the 80s, the committee ranked Boise State No. 9 ahead of the B12 champ ASU, even though the Sun Devils played a more demanding schedule. The Broncos’ ranking was based only on the “Eye Test.” Not a single metric justified Boise being ranked above ASU.
If we see the same lack of SOS accountability in 2025, the number of losses matters and not the quality of the teams you played, a tough schedule with a chance for significant victories, but also the probability of additional losses, is a Playoff double-edged sword.
First, here’s a look at the SEC’s top five teams’ odds to make the Playoffs. (Odds are followed by a team’s SOS)
SEC – 1. Texas -265 – 12 / 2. Georgia -260 – 13 / 3. Alabama -158 – 11/ 4. LSU +138 – 9 / 5. Ole Miss +146 – 23
Lane Kiffin has used his recruiting skills and NIL to make his team a Playoff Contender. (Screenshot from Ole Miss Athletics Video)
Four SEC teams are likely to make the 2025-26 PO field. Ole Miss with the 23rd SOS is odds-on to be one of the four. In 2025, Texas plays at Ohio State, Georgia at Georgia Tech, LSU at Clemson, and Alabama at a perhaps reinvigorated FSU. Ole Miss’s four OOC games in 2025 will all be played in Oxford, with the ‘toughest’ opponent being Washington State.
Ole Miss is OOC bulletproof in 2025. Going 6-2 in the SEC means a two-loss, 10-2 Ole Miss is in the Playoff. Ole Miss plays LSU, South Carolina, and Florida in Oxford, misses Texas and Alabama, and also misses SEC quality opponents, Tennessee, Texas, and a potentially tough Oklahoma team. The game at Georgia is the only game that looks like a certain loss for the Rebels this season.
Lane Kiffin does not have as strong a roster as he had in 2024, but he does have a relatively easy, and bet-worthy, path to the 2025 Playoff with +146 being a solid return on wager.
LSU is the only one of the top five teams to have its QB, Garrett Nussmeier, back, but the schedule, including the opener in Clemson’s Death Valley, is far from easy. We see -265 for Texas and -260 for Georgia and thus make these two teams the clear SEC conference champion front-runners; it’s quite the drop-off from Georgia’s -260 to Alabama’s -158 and LSU’s +138.
Do not bet if you are uncomfortable, and just have fun doing it with Monopoly money. Next up is looking at how the B1G Playoff contenders fared versus the odds set!
Jon Joseph
Aiken, South Carolina
Top Photo is Courtesy of University of Georgia Athletics
Share your thoughts about this team in the only free, “polite and respectful” Oregon Sports message board, the Our Beloved Ducks forum!
Related Articles:
Jon Joseph grew up in Boston, Massachusetts but has been blessed to have lived long enough in the west to have exorcised all east coast bias. He played football in college and has passionately followed the game for seven decades. A retired corporate attorney Jon has lectured across the country and published numerous articles on banking and gaming law. Now a resident of Aiken South Carolina, Jon follows college football across the nation with a focus on the Conference of Champions and the Ducks.