Does Oregon Have the BEST Path to a Championship?

Here. We. GO.

Our Oregon football program is officially in the dance again after an 11-1 regular season, and the matchup is set for James Madison to come up to Autzen on December 20th @4:30 PST. While the Ducks are opening as massive favorites (-21.5 points at the time of writing this), the confidence this team must have entering their first playoff game in Autzen cannot be overstated (prepare for one of the greatest ‘Shout’ fourth-quarter breaks in Oregon history).

Now what we need to see is if the Ducks can put it together in all three phases, get hot for four straight games, and maximize this extra time to heal up before taking home their first College Football Playoff championship. Our own Mr. FishDuck took a break from studying betting apps legal in most states to agree that Our Beloved Ducks have the potential to achieve the upside we all have anticipated.

Considering Oregon is the third-ranked team in the B1G conference, it’s pretty impressive that they’ve still cracked the top five. The postseason has become more of an endurance test than ever in this newly expanded Playoff, as some teams could play up to 17 total games in a single season. Getting a favorable draw is crucial, and in 2025’s 12-team bracket, the Ducks have what I believe to be the best route of any team in the nation.

The Ducks are flying high entering the Playoff, and should be getting crucial pieces back to help this offense hit its next gear—photo via Truong Nguyen

The Bracket Favors Oregon: Do They Have Another Gear?

This bracket favors Oregon for a ton of reasons. Let’s say all the favorites win. This is what Oregon’s path would look like: JMU, Texas Tech, Indiana, Ohio State.

I love how each of these matchups scales in roster talent, experience, and familiarity. It’s just going to take all of those teams actually winning their second-round games, and if last season taught us anything, it’s that bye weeks aren’t always what they’re made out to be. All four top seeds lost their opening game in 2024, forcing a complete overhaul of the 12-team format we know today. Ohio State and Indiana may fall victim to that. I expect more change to come after JMU vs. Oregon and Tulane vs. Ole Miss, but we’ll get to that in the offseason.

In 2025’s new iteration, I love Oregon being positioned at five with favorable matchups and an extra game, rather than being “rewarded” with an extra week off and a much tougher matchup. The Ducks do need to get healthy, so having a tune-up game after (hopefully) getting all their key players back is massive. As respectfully as I can say it, I think of James Madison like an open-book test before midterms. You have to appreciate their program for making it this far; I just don’t see a world where they really keep it close against this Oregon team. Winning, of course, is never easy in college football, and it seems like some teams treat playing Oregon like their Super Bowl (ex. three career-long field goals were kicked against Oregon in 2025). If everything goes well over the next two weeks, we could even see Dakorien Moore, Gary Bryant, and Evan Stewart return to action, while a healthier offensive line gets some quality reps and Dante Moore gets settled into playing playoff football.

On defense, I expect a ton of man-to-man on the outside, exotic blitz packages with some new looks to put on tape, and a trick play that involves Bryce Boettcher and co. again. The defensive line should demolish this group up front, and I can see them forcing some turnovers early to quickly put this game out of reach and advance Oregon to the next round.

After JMU, the Ducks will face off against Texas Tech, and that Red Raiders defense is one of the most vaunted in college football.

Kenyon Sadiq’s big plays in the B1G Championship from a year ago may be a huge part of that next gear Oregon needs in 2025 – Via Eric Becker

Offensive and Defensive Strengths in Matchups Ahead

Texas Tech’s front seven was the standout against BYU this past weekend in the Big 12 Championship, forcing an almost comical amount of turnovers in the fourth quarter and quickly extinguishing any thoughts of the Cougars making the College Football Playoff. They’re going to be a great test for Oregon’s offense when they need to find that next gear rather than just run a vanilla offensive game plan. I think Texas Tech is a GREAT matchup for the Ducks overall, and will be a gritty, trench-dominated game from start to finish. Tech’s offense ranks fifth in total yards this season, and they’ve been able to balance it on the ground and through the air. Bear Alexander and A’Mauri Washington will have their hands full. Considering how their strength of schedule has impacted those numbers, though, I don’t see them as highly powered as an Ohio State or Indiana offense, which Oregon will almost surely have more difficulty with.

Speaking of, depending on who makes it out of the second round, the Ducks may get an opportunity at both regular-season and Rose Bowl revenge on Indiana and Ohio State. I’d love to see the buzz those games would get, and it could be an awesome distraction to divert media attention away from all the Will Stein and Tosh Lupoi talk.

Overall: Oregon has the juice right now, and opening the Playoff against JMU is the key to getting “hot at the right time.”

Finding The Next Gear in This Oregon Offense

If there is another gear, Dakorien Moore and Kenyon Sadiq are the ignition cable. Dante Moore needs to show he can sling it downfield in rhythm with them again. I’d love to see what that would do for our three-headed rushing attack. While hanging 40+ points vs James Madison won’t exactly prove a lot about Oregon, it’s a GREAT way to find that extra gear just in time for tougher defenses like Texas Tech and Indiana ahead, and build on what Dante showed us during rivalry week.

Moore was absolutely letting it loose against Washington, and that’s the passing game confidence we need to ride into the playoffs. Thinking back to when Oregon played Oklahoma State earlier in the year, I feel this game against JMU could have a similar impact on this offense’s confidence moving forward. We’ll dive deeper into Oregon’s other favorable games in the bracket as the playoffs go on, but just from where you see it today: How do you feel about Oregon’s position in the College Football Playoff? Do you think the Ducks have the BEST slot in the bracket, or would you have preferred them placed elsewhere? How do you think the teams with byes will do this time around? Let us know in the FishDuck Forum with decorum.

Go Ducks!

Alex Heining
Los Angeles, California
Top Photo By: Eric Becker

Alex Heining

Alex Heining is an Oregon alumni from the graduate class of 2021. After studying sports business and media studies, he has moved into the field of digital marketing as a copywriter and content manager in the Los Angeles area. Still, he loves his Ducks and goes to local high school games all over the Los Angeles and Orange County area to check out new recruits of the future (and a SoFi game or two with the pros). On any given Saturday, expect to find him doing martial arts, playing the guitar, or screaming at the tv over a missed holding penalty.